NFL Week 12 over/under bets: Believe in Falcons' defense
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Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. We nailed our first two totals last week, but the Vikings' epic comeback doomed a perfect 3-0 mark. Alas, we'll take a 20-13 overall record heading into a tricky week.
Here are our best bets on totals for Week 12.
(Trends are from Sports Database unless otherwise noted.)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Total: 40.5
There aren't many clear-cut unders on the board this week, but this is about as close as it gets. The Bears' offense is a trainwreck, as evidenced Sunday in prime time, and it seemingly has a full-blown quarterback controversy after Mitchell Trubisky unceremoniously left Sunday's loss with what the team announced as a hip injury.
Trubisky has been dreadful this year, but backup Chase Daniel hasn't been much better, as he's posted two of the worst PFF grades of the year in his last two starts. The Giants have been respectable against the run this year, and Chicago ranks dead last in PFF rushing grade, so either Trubisky or Daniel - or maybe even Tyler Bray - will have to step up for this offense to score points.
On the other side, the Bears' defense has been a catalyst for four straight unders and a 10-3 under record for the team since 2018 with a total of 42 or lower. The under is a stellar 52-34 (60.5%) in that span in all games with a total of 42 or below. If Chicago can get to a turnover-prone Daniel Jones, this matchup should fall well short of its total.
Pick: Under 40.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 52
The Buccaneers are riding a ridiculous eight-game over streak into Atlanta, which has been home to one of the league's worst defenses this year. Easy over, right? Not if Raheem Morris has something to say about it.
The former Tampa Bay bench boss switched from receivers coach to secondary coach during Atlanta's bye week, and the Falcons have responded by holding New Orleans and Carolina to a combined 12 points with 11 sacks and four interceptions over their past two games. Now they face a Bucs team that ranks No. 1 in turnovers (25) and hasn't looked the same since dropping 55 points on the Rams in Week 4.
Atlanta is 7-3 to the under this year with four straight unders entering Sunday, and its talented secondary should be able to at least limit the damage from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Falcons haven't scored 30 points since Week 6, so the under looks like the play here despite these squads' reputations.
Pick: Under 52
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Total: 47
The Panthers' defense has graded out as above average for most of the year, but the scoreboard hasn't shown it. Carolina has the eighth-worst scoring defense in the NFL (25.7 points per game) and has allowed 29.5 points per contest since Week 5, which would rank third-worst in the NFL over a full season.
One issue is pace: The Panthers' offense ranks dead last in time of possession per drive, which has forced the defense into the second-most drives faced in the league, according to Football Outsiders. Carolina also ranks dead last in touchdowns allowed per red-zone trip, which is problematic against a healthy Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas.
New Orleans' offensive stats are skewed by Teddy Bridgewater's starts, but the Saints have averaged 2.54 points per drive in Brees' four full starts, which would rank fourth as a team this year. The Panthers have skewed over even with Kyle Allen's inconsistent play, and Sunday's total is low enough for the Saints to carry the over.
Pick: Over 47
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.