NFL Week 16 teaser: PIT/NYJ under, NYG/WAS over, Baltimore
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That's back-to-back weeks in which our teaser has been sunk by one game. This time, Devlin Hodges' red-zone inefficiency was the culprit as the contest stayed just under the total in Pittsburgh.
With the season winding down, let's finish strong.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Total: 38
Teaser total: 45
You really have to pity Sam Darnold this week as he gets set to face the Steelers' ruthless defensive front. Darnold has a completion percentage of just 45.1 with eight interceptions when under pressure this season. The Jets are 0-4 on the year when he's sacked at least three times, averaging just 13.7 points in those games. Pittsburgh's defense leads the NFL in sacks and has recorded at least four in six of its last eight contests, and it will be in Darnold's face all night. He might be seeing ghosts again.
The Steelers boast the league's third-best defense in DVOA. In four games against top-10 defenses, the Jets have managed just 23 total points (5.75 per game), averaging a meager 198 yards.
If you're on the over, you need to bank on Hodges and the Steelers lighting up the scoreboard. Good luck. In four games since Hodges took over as the starter, Pittsburgh has managed a modest 4.9 yards per play and averaged just 15.5 points.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Total: 42
Teaser total: 35
A lot has changed since the Giants beat the Redskins in Week 4 in New York. Daniel Jones was making just his second start, Dwayne Haskins was thrown into the game cold as he stepped onto an NFL field for the first time toward the end of the first half, Saquon Barkley and Terry McLaurin were injured, and Darius Slayton had just three NFL catches to his name. Don't be fooled by the 24-3 result, this is going to be a much different game.
Haskins has made impressive strides after a miserable start to his NFL career and has this offense working much more efficiently, averaging over 5.8 yards per play over the last three weeks.
Jones, who is expected to return for this game, will have close to a full complement of weapons for the first time as a starter. Slayton's emergence has completely changed the Giants' offensive approach, making life a lot easier for Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate underneath, as well as Barkley.
These defenses, meanwhile, are among the NFL's more porous units. The Redskins are gashed for 5.7 yards per play at home and the Giants for 5.8 on the road. This game should have no problem sailing over 42 points, let alone 35.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Line: Ravens -10
Teaser line: Ravens -3
Much like the first Redskins-Giants game, the previous meeting between the Ravens and Browns needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Baltimore was still in the early stages of instilling its new offense, its defense hadn't blossomed into the immovable force it is now, and it was a clear sandwich spot for the Ravens coming off a game at Arrowhead and looking ahead at a trip to Pittsburgh. It really was the perfect storm for Cleveland, but that won't be the case Sunday.
The Ravens would have a chance to lock up the conference's No. 1 seed with a win, which would allow them the option of resting a few starters in the finale against Pittsburgh. This is also a prime revenge spot for John Harbaugh, who's been known to do his best to stick it to teams in the past. He's never lost to the Browns on consecutive occasions. Harbaugh is also 8-3 against the spread and 9-2 straight up all time in Cleveland, including a perfect 3-0 in both when laying at least a touchdown.
Full teaser: PIT/NYJ under 45, NYG/WAS over 35, Baltimore -10 ($100 to win $135)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.