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Neither the Houston Texans nor the Buffalo Bills have the benefit of a first-round bye, but both teams bought themselves some rest after shelving key starters in meaningless Week 17 games. They meet in the wild-card round looking for elusive playoff success: Houston is 3-5 all time in the postseason, while Buffalo hasn't won a playoff game since 1995. Which team can break through Saturday?
Odds
Texans -2.5, 44
Houston opened at -3 at theScore Bet in New Jersey, but the line has moved to -2.5 ahead of Saturday's postseason opener, which should draw a fair amount of public money on the home favorite. The total has also skyrocketed from 41.5 to 44 as of Thursday, with Texans speedster Will Fuller still a game-time decision.
Betting trends
Only the Ravens and Saints were better bets on the road this year than the Bills, who were tied for the third-best road record against the spread (ATS) with a 6-1-1 mark. Additionally, they were an impressive 5-2-1 ATS this year as an underdog. It was all thanks to the team's defense - Buffalo held opponents to 15.6 points per contest in road games, good for a 6-2 under record.
The Bills' defense, ranked sixth in DVOA, matches up well with an air-led Houston attack that could be without one of its top weapons in Fuller. The Texans will welcome back J.J. Watt to a defense that's been mostly devoid of a pass rush since his injury Oct. 27.
Watt's return could spell success for Houston. This season, the Texans are 6-2 ATS when they record at least two sacks and 2-6 ATS when they don't. Houston's also 6-2 to the under when recording multiple sacks and 2-2-4 when registering one or fewer.
Watt's presence could also spell trouble for Josh Allen, who's struggled under pressure this season. Among 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, he ranks 27th in passer rating (60.5), 38th in completion percentage (41.2%), and 40th in adjusted completion percentage (55.6%) when pressured, per PFF.
X-factor
It shouldn't be as simple as "bet Houston if Fuller plays," but is it? In the 10 games this year where Fuller played at least five snaps, the Texans went 7-3 ATS with an average of 25.7 points per contest. In the other six games, they went 1-5 ATS while averaging 20.2 points.
As of Thursday, Fuller looks like a "real long shot" to play, according to NFL Network's James Palmer. If Fuller misses Saturday's contest, the Bills' elite secondary - led by emerging star Tre'Davious White - could effectively neutralize DeAndre Hopkins and force the Texans' tertiary receivers to carry Houston's offense.
Best bet
Under 44
There's a legitimate chance the Bills can upset the Texans on the road, but they'll likely have to do it with their defense. Even in wins, Buffalo has averaged just 23.5 points per game this year, and the team has only mustered a paltry 13.2 points in losses. A hobbled Houston offense might not be enough to best the Bills' defense, let alone carry the final score above a moderate total.
Playing the game total under has added value if Fuller is scratched or leaves the contest early. If he plays, a safer bet might be Buffalo's team total under, which should be secure if Watt is given enough snaps to frustrate Allen during his postseason debut.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.