Super Bowl LIV betting faceoff: Making the case for Chiefs, 49ers

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For only the fourth time in Super Bowl history, the betting line for the NFL's biggest game will likely close at shorter than a touchdown - which speaks to how tight this year's matchup is. The Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) opened as short favorites over the San Francisco 49ers, and early bettors have taken both sides with big-money bets.

We've got conflicting feelings on the game, too, so we've asked C Jackson Cowart (Chiefs) and Alex Moretto (49ers) to share their thoughts on which team to bet in Super Bowl LIV.

C Jackson Cowart: I think we're in for a heck of a game, but Kansas City is favored for a reason, and that reason is simple: Patrick Mahomes. Through two games, the dude has combined for 721 yards and nine touchdowns with zero turnovers in what PFF calls the best postseason performance it's ever graded. I wrote last week about the plight of young QBs in the big game, but Mahomes is a transcendent talent, and young favorites with strong supporting casts have been in a much better position.

Speaking of favorites, Mahomes is 23-6 straight up in his career as a favorite, and his Chiefs have won eight straight by an average of 16.1 points. They're the best team on offense, the best team on special teams, and have improved dramatically on defense. How's that for ya, Moretto?

Alex Moretto: I will concede to the fact that yes, there is no player more capable of winning this game on his own than Mahomes. He's the most valuable player to his respective team. But that's not a comment on the quality of the 49ers, rather a statement on just how dynamic and complete San Francisco's roster is top to bottom. The NFC champions are dominant at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and let's not forget that no matter how much this league changes, football games are still won in the trenches.

The 49ers also have the most suffocating defense in the NFL. The overall numbers on the season might not agree with that statement, but they dealt with some key injuries in the latter half of the year. Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt returned for the playoffs, and when the 49ers have all three of those guys on the field this season they're 10-0, allowing just 13.7 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. So please, Jackson, don't throw Mahomes' playoff stats at me. The Texans and Titans can only dream of playing defense like San Francisco does.

CJC: That all sounds well and good, but eight of those 10 teams in your cute little stat missed the playoffs, and the Vikings and Packers "can only dream" of playing offense like Kansas City does. Even so, the 49ers' D showed cracks against those two teams. Remember Stefon Diggs' 41-yard score over Ahkello Witherspoon? What about Davante Adams burning Richard Sherman on a 65-yard bomb? Say hello to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson ... Need I say more?

I love San Fran's top two secondary players as much as the next guy, but I don't trust their tertiary defensive backs to keep up with Hardman and Robinson, and I fear for Tartt's well-being trying to check Kelce. Don't forget about how dominant the Patriots' defense was this year and Mahomes and Co. dropped 271 yards on that historically adept secondary. He's 5-0 this season against top-12 defenses with a 112.4 passer rating, so he's not going to suddenly turn into, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo or something.

AM: Diggs is infinitely better than any Hardman or Robinson Kansas City can throw at San Fran's nickel corner. And you're going to waste everyone's time with the Adams bomb? Really? He didn't have a catch at halftime of that game. Do I need to explain to you what garbage time is? But I'm glad you brought up tight ends. Kansas City was a bottom-10 team at defending the position this season, allowing 6.1 receptions and 60.9 yards per game, and are now tasked with containing the league's best in George Kittle - without the services of injured safety Juan Thornhill. Kittle is about to feast.

We know Mahomes is good, let's not beat that to death. But we've also seen teams draw up a blueprint for beating him: keep him off the field. No team is more equipped to do so than the 49ers, who have run all over teams this season and are averaging 5.8 yards per rush in the postseason.

"But Kansas City is defending the run much better!" Let me just put that to rest right now. Carlos Hyde is a pumpkin, and as great as Derrick Henry is, he's a one-man show. The Titans don't have anywhere near the offensive line, nor do they have a mind as powerful as Kyle Shanahan's. He's the best in the game at drawing up a gameplan to exploit a defense's weakness, so as well as the Chiefs have done against the run this postseason, this is a massive step up in class. Just like you said, Mahomes will always get his, the same is true about the 49ers' rushing attack.

CJC: The Chiefs' run defense didn't suddenly transform during the playoffs - they've held every opponent below five yards per carry during their eight-game win streak. And if you think Raheem Mostert and his merry men hold a candle to what Henry did this postseason, I've got nothing for you.

I notice you've been conspicuously quiet about the Niners' most important player. Look, Shanahan is a wizard, but he'll have his hands full trying to pull magic from Garoppolo, who ranked 15th in PFF grades among QBs this year. Ryan Tannehill ranked first, but even he couldn't do enough against KC's underrated pass defense to match wits with Mahomes.

I respect you, Moretto, but I don't respect Garoppolo, and this game will ultimately come down to whether or not he can make enough plays in the passing game. Color me skeptical.

AM: You feel the need to mention quality of opponents when it comes to San Francisco's 10-0 record with a healthy defense, but not when it comes to Kansas City's eight-game win streak? Just one of those teams had a top-10 rushing offense, according to DVOA.

I've been as quiet about Garoppolo as San Francisco has this postseason, sure. But I'm hardly worried, as I wrote last week. Passing as little as they do isn't a sign of weakness, but rather one of strength. Shanahan has a proven ability to scheme open his best players and throw defenses off the scent with pre-snap movement, placing his quarterbacks in an excellent position to succeed.

San Francisco is just too complete of a football team on both sides of the ball and can beat you in so many ways. If the running game slows down, look for Kittle and Deebo Samuel to have big games. If the secondary struggles, the pass rush will pick up the slack. There's just too much that has to go wrong for the 49ers to lose this football game, unlike the Chiefs, who largely live and die by one player. You don't think the 49ers know that?

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.