2020 Braves season preview: Will injuries delay progress?
The Atlanta Braves will have their work cut out to try and hold on to divisional supremacy in 2020.
The two-time defending NL East champions lost Josh Donaldson to the Minnesota Twins in free agency after the former MVP revitalized his career in a Braves uniform last season. Whether it's Johan Camargo or Austin Riley at third base, replacing Donaldson's production will be difficult. But it's certainly not all doom and gloom: Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Mike Soroka are still in the fold and getting better, Marcell Ozuna jumped aboard in free agency, and the bullpen - health permitting - should be improved.
Make no mistake: The Braves won't be pushovers. But in a shortened season, keeping the divisional crown is no longer a sure thing.
2020 Breakdown
2019 record: 97-65 (1st in NL East)
Payroll: $175,443,333
Projected record: 33-27 (1st)
World Series odds: +1200
3-year trend: 2017 (3rd); 2018 (1st); 2019 (1st)
Key addition: Marcell Ozuna
Key subtraction: Josh Donaldson
Highest projected WAR: Ronald Acuna Jr. (1.6)
X-factor: Johan Camargo
Prospect to watch: Cristian Pache
Winter report card: B+
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | RF | 1.6 |
| 2 | Ozzie Albies (S) | 2B | 1.5 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman (L) | 1B | 1.4 |
| 4 | Marcell Ozuna | LF | 0.8 |
| 5 | Matt Adams | DH | 0.0 |
| 6 | Travis d'Arnaud | C | 0.6 |
| 7 | Ender Inciarte (L) | CF | 0.4 |
| 8 | Austin Riley | DH | 0.3 |
| 9 | Dansby Swanson | SS | 0.6 |
Bench
| Player | Position | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Flowers | C | 0.6 |
| Yonder Alonso (L) | 1B | 0.0 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | IF | 0.1 |
| Johan Camargo (S) | IF/OF | 0.5 |
| Charlie Culberson | IF/OF | 0.0 |
| Adam Duvall | OF | 0.1 |
*Bold indicates player acquired during offseason
The biggest potential loss aside from Donaldson is Freeman, who's questionable for Opening Day after missing much of summer camp with COVID-19. Alonso, signed to a minor-league deal this winter, faces the near-impossible task of replacing Atlanta's franchise icon and keeping first base warm until the All-Star's health improves. Even without Freeman and Donaldson, the Braves' lineup remains deep and intimidating, with a top four that can mash with just about anyone. Acuna will be expected to follow up his 30-30 season with another big step forward, while Ozuna brings some added punch. Third base will be a weak spot, but Camargo and Riley can't be expected to fully replicate Donaldson's MVP-type production.
Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Soroka | R | 4.21 |
| Max Fried | L | 3.69 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | R | 4.88 |
| Sean Newcomb | L | 4.44 |
| Kyle Wright | R | 4.44 |
The Braves' rotation will be in great shape If Soroka can continue his ascent as a budding ace following his brilliant rookie season. Atlanta has more than enough depth to withstand the offseason losses of Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran, especially if Newcomb rediscovers his old form after being bumped to the bullpen in 2019. But Felix Hernandez opted out and Cole Hamels is injured, forcing the Braves to get creative in a shortened season.
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Melancon | R | 3.86 |
| Shane Greene | R | 4.20 |
| Luke Jackson | R | 3.60 |
| Chris Martin | R | 3.49 |
| Darren O'Day | R | 4.25 |
| Grant Dayton | L | 4.13 |
| A.J. Minter | L | 3.90 |
| Bryse Wilson | R | 4.15 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | R | 5.25 |
| Josh Tomlin | R | 4.96 |
The top of the relief corps has lost some of its potency due to the pandemic, as Will Smith - one of Atlanta's biggest and boldest signings this winter - has tested positive for COVID-19. But Melancon, Greene, Jackson, and Martin still form a tough front four that will only get stronger if Smith is able to return. Though the bullpen has only two left-handers right now, it still has plenty of depth and features some pitchers with excellent track records, such as O'Day. This unit should boost the Braves' chances of success if it can perform to its capabilities.
Key injuries/Absences
| Player | Position | Absence |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Hamels | SP | Triceps tendinitis |
| Felix Hernandez | SP | Opted out |
| Pete Kozma | IF | COVID-19 |
| Nick Markakis | OF | Opted out |
| Peter O'Brien | 1B/OF | Undisclosed |
| Will Smith | RP | COVID-19 |
| Touki Toussaint | RP | COVID-19 |
(Projected WAR/ERA source: FanGraphs)