2020 Mets season preview: Where there's deGrom, there's a way
The New York Mets had a disappointing 2019 season, and they'll be looking to right the ship in a shortened 2020 campaign. But that's a lot easier said than done in a difficult division.
Injuries continue to be the most dominant on-field story in Queens. Yoenis Cespedes and Jed Lowrie, two oft-injured veterans who combined to play nine games last year, are healthy and ready to go. But Noah Syndergaard won't be on the mound following Tommy John surgery. Questions also abound concerning Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz's abilities to bounce back from disappointing first years with the Mets.
And yet, there's hope. Jacob deGrom, arguably the best pitcher on earth, still leads the rotation. Reigning NL Rookie of the Year and home-run machine Pete Alonso still anchors a solid lineup. This isn't a bad team by any means. There's enough here to see a path to success, especially in a 60-game sprint where anything can happen.
2020 Breakdown
2019 record: 86-76 (3rd in NL East)
Payroll: $188,292,500
Projected record: 31-29 (3rd)
World Series odds: +1500
3-year trend: 2017 (4th); 2018 (4th); 2019 (3rd)
Key addition: Rick Porcello
Key subtraction: Zack Wheeler
Highest projected WAR: Jacob deGrom (2.1)
X-factor: Robinson Cano
Prospect to watch: Andres Gimenez
Winter report card: B-
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff McNeil (L) | 3B | 1.2 |
| 2 | Pete Alonso | 1B | 1.2 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano (L) | 2B | 0.6 |
| 4 | Yoenis Cespedes | DH | 0.2 |
| 5 | Michael Conforto (L) | RF | 1.1 |
| 6 | J.D. Davis | LF | 0.5 |
| 7 | Wilson Ramos | C | 0.6 |
| 8 | Brandon Nimmo (L) | CF | 0.7 |
| 9 | Amed Rosario | SS | 0.9 |
Bench
| Player | Position | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Nido | C | 0.1 |
| Rene Rivera | C | 0.0 |
| Dominic Smith (L) | 1B/OF | 0.0 |
| Andres Gimenez (L) | IF | 0.0 |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 0.0 |
| Luis Guillorme (L) | IF | 0.0 |
| Jake Marisnick | OF | 0.1 |
*Bold indicates player acquired during offseason
Few NL teams will benefit from the universal DH like the Mets, who have an array of options at their disposal. Cespedes will be able to make his long-awaited return without playing the field, whether he's in the lineup full time or platoons with the left-handed-hitting Smith. Unfortunately, Lowrie's health remains a question mark, as he's unlikely to open the season on the active roster. A lot of this offense's success will ride on Cano's ability to rediscover his old form and provide even more punch to a solid top five.
Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | R | 3.29 |
| Steven Matz | L | 4.55 |
| Rick Porcello | R | 4.82 |
| Michael Wacha | R | 4.97 |
| TBD | -- | -- |
DeGrom is going to be deGrom; behind him, there are questions. Syndergaard is out after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March, and Stroman is now week-to-week with a calf injury. Newcomers Porcello and Wacha signed bridge contracts in the winter and are looking to bounce back from poor 2019 seasons. Even middling performances from them would be bonuses.
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | R | 3.06 |
| Dellin Betances | R | 3.25 |
| Seth Lugo | R | 3.76 |
| Justin Wilson | L | 3.87 |
| Jeurys Familia | R | 4.14 |
| Robert Gsellman | R | 4.38 |
| Hunter Strickland | R | 4.85 |
| Paul Sewald | R | 4.77 |
| Corey Oswalt | R | 4.79 |
| Drew Smith | R | 4.41 |
| Chasen Shreve | L | 4.65 |
The Mets have a deep bullpen, but that doesn't guarantee success. Diaz was a disaster during his first season in Flushing, and Betances has some health questions coming off a torn Achilles. If they're both able to find it again, the Mets' chances at success will skyrocket. An assortment of solid if unspectacular bullpen arms highlights the rest of the relief corps.
Key injuries/absences
| Player | Position | Absence |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | SP | Calf tear |
| Brad Brach | RP | Undisclosed |
| Jared Hughes | RP | Undisclosed |
| Jed Lowrie | IF | Knee soreness |
| Noah Syndergaard | SP | Tommy John surgery |
| Walker Lockett | RP | Back discomfort |
(Projected WAR/ERA source: FanGraphs)