2020 Phillies season preview: Can talented squad finally break through?
Bryce Harper's first season in Philadelphia was a letdown. The Phillies couldn't get over .500 - they haven't since 2011 - and it cost Gabe Kapler his job.
So once again, they shook things up in the winter. Veteran skipper Joe Girardi was brought in to guide the team to the next level, and the Phillies made more splashy additions in free agency, this time signing Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius. With Andrew McCutchen returning to health, Aaron Nola's growth, and the continued presence of All-Stars Harper, Jean Segura, and J.T. Realmuto, you've got the makings of a very good team. But is all that enough to find success in the ultra-competitive NL East?
The Phillies are going to be one of the most interesting teams to watch this season. With a long rebuild in the rearview mirror, the sky appears to be the limit for this group. But merely getting back above .500 isn't going to cut it now.
2020 Breakdown
2019 record: 81-81 (4th in NL East)
Payroll: $201,661,282
Projected record: 30-30 (4th)
World Series odds: +2000
3-year trend: 2017 (5th); 2018 (3rd); 2019 (4th)
Key addition: Zack Wheeler
Key subtraction: Cesar Hernandez
Highest projected WAR: Bryce Harper (1.6)
X-factor: Andrew McCutchen
Prospect to watch: Spencer Howard
Winter report card: B+
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew McCutchen | LF | 0.8 |
| 2 | Bryce Harper (L) | RF | 1.6 |
| 3 | J.T. Realmuto | C | 1.5 |
| 4 | Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 1.0 |
| 5 | Jay Bruce (L) | DH | 0.0 |
| 6 | Didi Gregorius (L) | SS | 0.8 |
| 7 | Jean Segura | 3B | 0.8 |
| 8 | Scott Kingery | 2B | 0.3 |
| 9 | Adam Haseley (L) | CF | 0.3 |
Bench
| Player | Position | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Knapp (S) | C | 0.0 |
| Neil Walker (S) | IF/OF | 0.0 |
| Kyle Garlick | OF | 0.0 |
| Roman Quinn (S) | OF | 0.0 |
*Bold indicates player acquired during offseason
The delayed start to 2020 allowed McCutchen to be ready for Opening Day, as the former NL MVP had been slated to start on the injured list while recovering from last season's ACL tear. Having him from the get-go improves a formidable top six that's already been boosted by the addition of Gregorius.
Philadelphia stands to benefit from the universal DH rule. Bruce, who would have been bumped to the bench under normal circumstances, slides perfectly into that role and adds more pop to a powerful lineup.
Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | R | 4.01 |
| Zack Wheeler | R | 4.33 |
| Jake Arrieta | R | 4.96 |
| Vince Velasquez | R | 4.95 |
| Zach Eflin | R | 5.25 |
Stealing Wheeler from the rival Mets was a boon for Philadelphia's rotation. If he performs to expectation and Nola can recapture his All-Star form, a lot of pressure will be taken off the inconsistent trio at the back of this staff. Arrieta's entering the final year of his contract, and the marriage hasn't worked out for either side. Much of the Phillies' hopes could ride on his ability to find even a sliver of his Cy Young-winning self.
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Hector Neris | R | 4.05 |
| Adam Morgan | L | 4.60 |
| Nick Pivetta | R | 4.27 |
| Tommy Hunter | R | 4.38 |
| Jose Alvarez | L | 4.26 |
| Robert Stock | R | 3.95 |
| Reggie McClain | R | 4.38 |
| Cole Irvin | L | 4.48 |
| Deolis Guerra | R | 4.06 |
| Ramon Rosso | R | 4.93 |
The Phillies are projected to carry four left-handers, an odd decision that could make for some interesting moments in the era of three-batter minimums. Neris is a solid closer at the front end of this unit, but the pieces behind him could be a mixed bag. A spate of injuries might hurt this unit's effectiveness all season, the most notable being young flamethrower Seranthony Dominguez who's still dealing with a bad elbow.
Key injuries/Absences
| Player | Position | Absence |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Davis | RP | Undisclosed |
| Seranthony Dominguez | RP | Elbow |
| David Robertson | RP | Tommy John surgery |
| Ranger Suarez | RP | Undisclosed |
(Projected WAR/ERA source: Fangraphs)