2020 Rockies season preview: Can the pitching bounce back?
The Colorado Rockies are hoping to turn things around after a disappointing 2019 campaign that ended with their lowest win total in four years.
Homegrown stars Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon return to anchor the team's offense after general manager Jeff Bridich did next to nothing to improve the club this offseason.
Following an offseason rift between Arenado and team brass that the organization extinguished, Rockies owner Dick Monfort predicted his club would win 94 games, which equates to 35 victories during the short 60-game slate.
That's a high bar for a team set to play the Los Angeles Dodgers 10 times, but it's doable if everything goes right for the Rox.
2020 Breakdown
2019 record: 71-91 (4th in NL West)
Payroll: $175,971,666
Projected record: 27-33 (4th)
World Series odds: +15000
3-year trend: 2017 (3rd); 2018 (2nd); 2019 (4th)
Key addition: Matt Kemp
Key subtraction: Chris Iannetta
Highest projected WAR: Nolan Arenado (1.8)
X-factor: Kyle Freeland
Prospect to watch: Brendan Rodgers
Winter report card: F
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Dahl (L) | CF | 0.3 |
| 2 | Trevor Story | SS | 1.5 |
| 3 | Charlie Blackmon (L) | RF | 0.6 |
| 4 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | 1.8 |
| 5 | Daniel Murphy (L) | DH | 0.1 |
| 6 | Ryan McMahon (L) | 1B | 0.3 |
| 7 | Garrett Hampson | 2B | 0.1 |
| 8 | Sam Hilliard (L) | LF | -0.2 |
| 9 | Tony Wolters (L) | C | 0.2 |
Bench
| Player | Position | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Butera | C | 0.0 |
| Elias Diaz | C | 0.0 |
| Chris Owings | IF | 0.0 |
| Josh Fuentes | IF | -0.1 |
| Matt Kemp | OF | 0.0 |
| Raimel Tapia (L) | OF | -0.2 |
*Bold indicates player acquired during offseason
Dahl and McMahon look like solid full-time contributors who can support Arenado, Story, and Blackmon. Murphy wasn't as terrible as some made him out to be last season (35 doubles, 78 RBIs, .780 OPS), and he could turn things around if the veteran slots in as a full-time DH.
With Ian Desmond opting out of the season, Kemp could be called upon often as a replacement. His best years are likely behind him.
Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| German Marquez | R | 4.32 |
| Jon Gray | R | 4.49 |
| Kyle Freeland | L | 5.25 |
| Antonio Senzatela | R | 5.64 |
| Jeff Hoffman | R | 5.43 |
When the Rockies won 90 games in 2018, their rotation posted a 4.17 ERA and ranked ninth in MLB with 14.0 WAR. Last season, that ERA ballooned to 5.87, with Freeland looking like a shell of the pitcher who finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting one year prior.
Pitching well in Colorado consistently is tough, but if the team's rotation comes close to its 2018 form, this unit will be a difference-maker.
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Davis | R | 5.3 |
| Jairo Diaz | R | 4.34 |
| Carlos Estevez | R | 4.45 |
| Philip Diehl | L | 4.94 |
| James Pazos | L | 4.95 |
| Tyler Kinley | R | 5.41 |
| Daniel Bard | R | 5.65 |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | R | 5.50 |
| Yency Almonte | R | 5.34 |
| Ashton Goudeau | R | 5.48 |
With $17 million invested in Davis during the final season of his contract, the Rockies will give him another crack at finishing games. The three-time All-Star recorded an ugly 8.65 ERA and 5.56 FIP in 50 appearances last season for a Rockies bullpen that was among MLB's worst.
With Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee released, keep an eye on the 35-year-old Bard, who's on the comeback trail after the yips derailed his promising career seven years ago. He could become the feel-good story of the year.
Key injuries/Absences
| Player | Position | Absence |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Desmond | IF/OF | Opted out of season |
| Scott Oberg | RP | Back tightness |
(Projected WAR/ERA source: FanGraphs)