2020 Cubs season preview: Last chance at a dynasty

The Chicago Cubs did very little this offseason. Few teams spent less on the open market, and with apologies to Jason Kipnis and Steven Souza Jr., none of the club's roster additions sparks much excitement.

By this point, the narrative has been repeated over and over again: The Cubs looked like a burgeoning dynasty after winning the 2016 World Series. But since breaking their century-old curse, the Cubs have been a disappointment, whether it's because of some bad luck or a handful of contracts that haven't aged as well as expected.

And whether or not the franchise's claim of being stretched financially thin has merit, the team has experienced plenty of turmoil. Manager Joe Maddon was shown the door after the Cubs missed the playoffs in 2019, and trade rumors have swirled around stars Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez, though none have yet been moved.

2020 Breakdown

2019 record: 84-78 (3rd in NL Central)
Payroll: $210,133,333
Projected record:​​​​ 32-28 (T-1st)
World Series odds: +1800
3-year trend: 2017 (1st); 2018 (2nd); 2019 (3rd)
Key addition: Jeremy Jeffress
Key subtraction: Nick Castellanos
Highest projected WAR: Kris Bryant (1.7)
X-factor: Yu Darvish
Prospect to watch: Nico Hoerner
Winter report card: F

Projected Lineup

Bench

*Bold indicates player acquired during offseason

Despite their general lack of offseason moves - and watching Nick Castellanos jump ship to division-rival Cincinnati - the Cubs' lineup is still nothing to scoff at, particularly the top of the order. Rizzo and Heyward are the only returning starters who have reached the age of 30 (Kipnis is 32), so the core is still plenty youthful. Bryant isn't far removed from winning the NL MVP, and he's been better in the last couple of seasons than he gets credit for. If Happ finally lives up to his potential, the Cubs could conceivably slug their way to a division title or, at the very least, a wild-card spot.

Rotation

While the lineup is still the picture of youth, the rotation is getting long in the tooth. Darvish, 33, looked a bit like his former self down the stretch in 2019, posting a 3.45 ERA without issuing more than two walks in a single outing over his last 18 starts. Southpaws Jose Quintana (31) and Lester (36) are providing diminishing returns, so the Cubs really need Darvish to be a true ace, especially after Cole Hamels signed in Atlanta. Hendricks, who defies contemporary wisdom about what makes a successful starter, has become the rotation's one constant. Despite posting a sub-8.00 K/9 for three consecutive seasons, he's managed to keep his ERA below 3.50 each time out. Though he's never been an All-Star, Hendricks is 63-43 with a 3.14 ERA - winning the ERA title in 2013 - and 1.11 WHIP across 966 career innings since his debut in 2014.

Bullpen

The Cubs will look to get more out of Kimbrel after picking up the All-Star closer last summer on a three-year contract. Jeffress provides a power arm for the back end. Though he's been inconsistent over the course of his career, he's borderline unhittable at times. The club also jettisoned veteran Brandon Morrow last week, ending his tenure in Chicago after only 30 2/3 innings (all in 2018).

Key injuries/Absences

(Projected WAR/ERA source: FanGraphs)