2020 Reds season preview: Major moves in search of major payoff
The Cincinnati Reds became a popular win-now candidate thanks to an extremely busy offseason that saw an already solid lineup get even stronger thanks to key free-agent additions like Shogo Akiyama, Nick Castellanos, and Mike Moustakas.
The timing also factored in as the rest of the division contenders played it relatively quiet on the open market. Neither the Cubs nor Cardinals did much to bring in new faces, and while the Brewers saw significant turnover, their biggest acquisitions were Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez.
So the Reds enter the 2020 campaign as the sexy choice to compete for a division title, and there aren't many holes on paper.
2020 Breakdown
2019 record: 75-87 (4th in NL Central)
Payroll: $161,414,405
Projected record: 32-28 (T-1st)
World Series odds: +2500
3-year trend: 2017 (5th); 2018 (5th); 2019 (4th)
Key addition(s): Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama, Nick Castellanos
Key subtraction: Jose Peraza
Highest projected WAR: Trevor Bauer (1.4)
X-factor: Nick Senzel
Prospect to watch: Tyler Stephenson
Winter report card: A
Projected Lineup
| Order | Player | Pos. | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shogo Akiyama (L) | LF | 0.8 |
| 2 | Joey Votto (L) | 1B | 0.4 |
| 3 | Eugenio Suarez | 3B | 0.9 |
| 4 | Mike Moustakas (L) | 2B | 0.7 |
| 5 | Nick Castellanos | RF | 0.0 |
| 6 | Jesse Winker (L) | DH | 0.2 |
| 7 | Freddy Galvis (S) | SS | 0.2 |
| 8 | Nick Senzel | CF | 0.3 |
| 9 | Tucker Barnhart (L) | C | 0.5 |
Bench
| Player | Position | Proj. WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Curt Casali | C/1B | 0.3 |
| Kyle Farmer | C/IF | 0.0 |
| Matt Davidson | IF | 0.0 |
| Josh VanMeter (L) | IF/OF | 0.0 |
| Phillip Ervin | OF | -0.1 |
| Travis Jankowski (L) | OF | 0.0 |
*Bold indicates player acquired during offseason
Senzel is no longer in much danger of losing playing time with the DH being introduced to the National League. It's especially encouraging in the event that Moustakas struggles at second base after primarily serving as a third baseman and occasional first baseman for much of his career. Whatever the case, it gives the lineup a lot more flexibility.
Eyes will be on Votto, too, who is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. At 36, it's natural to wonder if it's all downhill from here. Still, he's a borderline Hall of Famer who has an incredible work ethic, so it wouldn't be surprising if he rebounds.
Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | R | 4.14 |
| Luis Castillo | R | 4.02 |
| Trevor Bauer | R | 4.16 |
| Wade Miley | L | 4.68 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | R | 4.74 |
The Reds' rotation has a ton of upside with the only significant question mark being Miley, who has been an inconsistent arm for years - occasionally brilliant and often very hittable. Bauer struggled after being acquired from Cleveland last summer, posting a 6.39 ERA over 10 starts, but the cerebral right-hander is constantly tinkering with his repertoire and could be in line for an excellent season. The plan heading into the campaign is for him to start on three days' rest the whole way. If Bauer rights the ship, that could be a key contributing factor to the team's success.
Bullpen
| Pitcher | Throws | Proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | R | 4.12 |
| Michael Lorenzen | R | 4.46 |
| Amir Garrett | L | 4.07 |
| Pedro Strop | R | 4.44 |
| Robert Stephenson | R | 4.30 |
| Tyler Mahle | R | 4.36 |
| Nate Jones | R | 4.39 |
| Brooks Raley | L | 5.24 |
| Cody Reed | L | 3.96 |
| Lucas Sims | R | 4.13 |
The primary area of concern facing Cincinnati is the relief corps. Iglesias is a solid closer, but he struggled in 2019 when the coaching staff changed his role so he could enter games whenever the Reds saw fit. If he's positioned exclusively as a ninth-inning arm, that will bode well. Strop offers veteran presence, and if Jones can touch his old form, then maybe there won't be cause for concern after all.
Key injuries/Absences
None
(Projected WAR/ERA source: FanGraphs)