NFL draft matchup odds: Tee Higgins vs. Denzel Mims

We've seen some off-the-wall NFL draft props since the market opened up a few months ago. Now, it's time to get back to the bread and butter.

NFL draft matchups are a more traditional route. Shops take two prospects from the same position group and set prices on who will be selected first. It's certainly exploitable, especially when you're high on one player and low on the other.

Today, we dive into the wide receiver matchup between Clemson's Tee Higgins and Baylor's Denzel Mims.

Odds to be drafted first

Tale of the tape

The casual college football fan might be wondering how Mims could be favored here. Higgins, after all, had the edge in yards, yards per catch, and touchdowns in 2019, all while playing for a team that wound up making its second consecutive appearance in the national championship game. He certainly garnered the bulk of the attention.

For what it's worth, Mims did have more yards, catches, and touchdowns over his collegiate career than Higgins did. But that's not as important as a player's potential as a prospect at the next level.

Trajectory

Higgins was going as early as 19th overall in mock drafts before the NFL Scouting Combine; Mims didn't warrant so much as a whisper of first-round consideration.

After testing, the roles seemingly flipped.

Mims put on a show at the combine, recording a 4.38 40-yard dash time, 131-inch broad jump, and 38.5-inch vertical leap. Higgins, meanwhile, bypassed the combine and elected to test at Clemson's pro day, posting a 4.54 in the 40-yard dash and a disappointing 31-inch vertical.

After that, Twitter fell in love with the underdog.

This is not to say Mims came out of college as a diamond in the rough. He was a four-year contributor at Baylor and has 15 months on Higgins. But after reviewing the tape again and putting Mims' stats into context, one can see why he's been such a fast-rising prospect.

For starters, he had the highest contested-catch percentage of any 2020 receiving prospect, and it wasn't even close:

Want a receiver who can make plays in space and along the perimeter? Mims is your guy.

Best bet

Denzel Mims -235

Higgins' stock has plummeted - arguably more than that of anyone else at his position. He didn't light it up at his pro day and demonstrated a limited route tree during his career at Clemson, sending his average projected draft position from 19.5 to the fringes of the first round. I boarded the Mims train early and am hoping the momentum hasn't slowed down, though the price of this matchup prop is getting a little out of my comfort zone. I'm simply reading the tea leaves here and hoping Higgins' fall is real. If it is, Mims should hear his name called well before his counterpart.