Exacta: Betting the correct order of the top 3 picks in the NFL draft

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You often hear NFL draft experts preach that sure things don't exist, and while that may hold some truth, there are exceptions to every rule. Even in these unprecedented times of a virtual draft - where information is less likely to leak - Joe Burrow and Chase Young going first and second overall, respectively, is as close to a lock as it gets.

You'd have to lay at least -3000 at most shops to bet Burrow to the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 1, and you'd get a similarly steep price on Young to the Washington Redskins at No. 2.

When capping the market for the correct order of the top three picks, you can get some alluringly long prices by breaking up the top two - but it's essentially wasted money. Instead, let's target the third selection, where the draft will really start in the eyes of many experts.

In this market, there are two methods of thinking. Either you believe the Detroit Lions will hold onto the third overall pick, or that they'll trade it to a quarterback-hungry team.

The former feels like the much likelier route, with a trade this early in Round 1 growing increasingly unlikely. Not only are many plugged-in experts predicting much less trading at this year's draft due to its virtual nature, but there are also reports that teams are legitimately concerned about Tua Tagovailoa's durability. That would suggest the quarterback market has cooled, and that the Lions are unlikely to receive any serious offers for the third pick.

This is all information that's started to surface over the past couple of weeks, which explains the significant line movement in this market. Tagovailoa getting picked third was closer to even money a fortnight ago, but odds of him following Burrow and Young have since dipped to longer than 2-1. Aside from the Miami Dolphins, there's no guarantee that any other team is hot after a quarterback. The Los Angeles Chargers have other areas they can address with Tyrod Taylor penciled in as the starter, while the Jacksonville Jaguars need to fill glaring holes on defense and are expected to stick with Gardner Minshew for the time being. All signs point to the Lions staying put at No. 3.

If so, the overwhelming majority of mock drafts have Detroit selecting Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah. It's an obvious choice after the Lions traded top corner Darius Slay to the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason, but is it as much of a slam dunk as the odds suggest?

Detroit signed both Desmond Trufant and Darryl Roberts in free agency, while the depth at cornerback in this draft means the team can get a legitimate contributor like Jeff Gladney, Trevon Diggs, or Jaylon Johnson with the 35th overall pick. The Lions have the luxury of being able to wait a round to address the need.

They don't have that luxury on the defensive line, where they're desperate for a disruptive force. Detroit registered just 28 sacks last season - only the Dolphins managed fewer - and former starting tackles Damon Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson are both no longer with the team.

Football games are won in the trenches, as the old adage goes, and the Lions arguably have an even greater need at defensive tackle than they do at cornerback. Auburn product Derrick Brown would make a ton of sense for Detroit with the third pick.

Again, with team facilities closed, information is less likely to leak this year, so all those mocks projecting Okudah to the Lions are merely making assumptions. This is a lot closer to a coin flip than the line indicates. I grabbed "Burrow, Young, Brown" as the order of the top three at +2200 just a couple of days ago, and those odds have already shortened to +600.

There's still good value there, but get in now before it's all gone.

Best bet: 1. Joe Burrow 2. Chase Young 3. Derrick Brown (+600)

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Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.