Playoff hypotheticals: How would the East 1st round play out?
In an ideal world, the NBA would be playing the first round of the postseason right now.
We don't know how the standings might have changed if the regular season had continued. We don't know if we'll ever get to see a conclusion to the 2019-20 campaign. But in the spirit of what would've been the opening week of the playoffs, we're breaking down the first-round matchups as they looked on the day the season was suspended. Also check out the Western Conference hypotheticals.
No. 1 Bucks vs. No. 8 Magic
The Magic are a decent team with a high defensive ceiling when Jonathan Isaac is in the mix - and he may have returned from his left knee injury in time for the playoffs - but they wouldn't have nearly enough offensive firepower to so much as dent the Bucks' ironclad defense.
There's a reason the Magic went 5-26 against above-.500 teams this season. They have minimal off-the-dribble shot creation, limited playmaking, a dearth of shooting, and an over-reliance on the interior scoring of Nikola Vucevic. You really don't want to rely on interior scoring against the Bucks. (To say nothing of the fact that Vucevic's first go-round as a primary offensive option in the playoffs went exceedingly poorly last year.)
The Magic have good individual defensive options to throw at Giannis Antetokounmpo (to the extent such things exist) in Isaac and Aaron Gordon, but Vucevic doesn't offer a ton of rim protection behind them. Orlando's point-of-attack defense wouldn't hold up without Michael Carter-Williams and Markelle Fultz, but playing non-shooters on the perimeter against Milwaukee is asking to get suffocated.
The Bucks swept the four-game season series by an average margin of 17 points, and I'd expect something similar in a playoff series.
Prediction: Bucks in 4 - Joe Wolfond
No. 2 Raptors vs. No. 7 Nets
The only drama to be found here is whether the Raptors would continue inventing ways to lose playoff openers at home.
Aside from that comical Game 1 intrigue, the Raptors would handle the overmatched Nets fairly easily. The injury-riddled champs were on pace for 59 wins and getting healthier; they're a ruthlessly precise team that finds and exploits any minute advantage it can muster, no matter how much head coach Nick Nurse needs to tinker and experiment.
The Nets, while boasting talents like Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert who can randomly steal a game or two, would be without Kyrie Irving and dealing with an identity crisis after the stunning departure of coach Kenny Atkinson.
A Brooklyn team in a muddied transition phase of an already lost season wouldn't have the horses or the structure to keep up with Toronto, leading to the first successful sweep in Raptors history.
Prediction: Raptors in 4 - Joseph Casciaro
No. 3 Celtics vs. No. 6 76ers
The Celtics found their happy place this season with Kemba Walker replacing Irving and Jayson Tatum taking the next step on his path to stardom. The Sixers, meanwhile, encountered the type of season-long turbulence that undid Boston last year.
Boston has a more balanced team, is better coached, and has the type of off-the-dribble shot creation with Tatum, Walker, Jaylen Brown, and a resurgent Gordon Hayward that it takes to beat good playoff defenses - which the lengthy Sixers have.
Philly, on the other hand, can be a bit of an offensive mess with both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons (who would be expected back from injury for the playoffs) on the court cramping each other's spacing. But the playoffs are about star talent and matchups, and in Embiid, the 76ers would own the most sizeable and unsolvable matchup advantage. And yes, I'm aware Embiid shot 39% in three games against Boston this season. I don't suspect that would hold up in a seven-game series.
As impressive a two-way season as Boston has enjoyed, its roster construction and lack of interior size leave the team vulnerable to this type of postseason matchup, and the Celtics did nothing to address that glaring need for a big man. Credit to Daniel Theis for a superb defensive season, and to Enes Kanter for knowing his role as an offensive big and rebounding machine, but Embiid would eat Boston's big men alive.
Though the Celtics are good enough to ensure a competitive series and the Sixers' offense gets bogged down at times, Embiid would be Philly's get-out-of-jail-free card - an automatic offensive mismatch unlike any other in this series.
The Sixers' internal issues would prevent them from advancing much further, but in a first-round matchup in which they are only underdogs by seeding, their raw talent and Embiid's dominating physical force would be enough.
Prediction: 76ers in 7 - Casciaro
No. 4 Heat vs. No. 5 Pacers
This would be a hard-fought series with some fun subplots: a battle of dynamic young All-Star bigs Bam Adebayo and Domantas Sabonis; T.J. Warren's shot at revenge against Jimmy Butler; and Erik Spoelstra and Nate McMillan competing to see who could draw up the most creative misdirects to spring Duncan Robinson and Doug McDermott for open threes.
Tactically, the series would present the Pacers with a bit of a math problem. They ranked last in the NBA in both 3-point and free-throw attempt rate, while the Heat ranked first in free-throw rate and seventh in 3-point rate. Even for a team with money mid-range and floater shooters such as Warren and Malcolm Brogdon, the Pacers would be in a tough spot. (They also lost a lot of in-between scoring when Jeremy Lamb suffered a season-ending ACL tear.)
The truth is, Miami just isn't a great matchup for Indiana. I think the Heat's small-ball lineups would essentially make the Sabonis-Myles Turner frontcourt unplayable, and that would create a bunch of other issues for the Pacers, who rely on Sabonis to keep their offense humming but can't really protect the rim without Turner. If those two can't be on the floor together, how would McMillan allocate the center minutes between them? And then how would he plug the power-forward hole? Has Warren improved enough as a defender to handle playing the four full time?
The potential swing factor would be Victor Oladipo. The former All-NBA guard looked shaky in his return from a ruptured quad but had quietly started to round back into form.
In his last seven games before the season was suspended, six of which were wins, he averaged 21.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per 36 minutes, while shooting 48.2% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. Indiana outscored opponents by 9.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. His defensive oomph was also coming back. He was finally starting to get to the hoop and the free-throw line with some regularity. He was getting a feel for playing alongside Brogdon. His pick-and-roll synergy with Sabonis looked as sharp as ever.
But unless Oladipo could get all the way back to his pre-injury form, the Heat would have more elite talent and be better built for the playoffs, with a measure of toughness and physicality that the Pacers would struggle to match.
Prediction: Heat in 6 - Wolfond