RBC Heritage betting preview: Stacked field creates value at Harbour Town
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How entertaining was last week? The Charles Schwab Challenge was the perfect event to kick off the PGA Tour's restart schedule. The cream rose to the top of the leaderboard and provided a dramatic Sunday finish.
Another star-studded field is in Hilton Head, South Carolina, this week for the RBC Heritage. The group taking on Harbour Town Golf Links is nearly identical to the one that tackled Colonial, creating an interesting betting scenario as players look to replicate or improve upon last week's performances.
The course
- 7,099 yards, par 71
- Bermuda grass greens
- Requires accuracy over distance off the tee
- Small greens reward pinpoint iron play
- Seven par 4s under 430 yards
Previous winners
2019: C.T. Pan (-12) over Matt Kuchar
2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12) over Si Woo Kim
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13) over Luke Donald
2016: Branden Grace (-9) over Luke Donald, Russell Knox
2015: Jim Furyk (-18) over Kevin Kisner
2014: Matt Kuchar (-11) over Luke Donald
2013: Graeme McDowell (-9) over Webb Simpson
The favorites
| Player | Odds | Best Heritage finish (last 5 years) |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 | N/A |
| Justin Thomas | +1000 | T11 (2015) |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1200 | T3 (2018) |
| Jon Rahm | +1300 | N/A |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 | T32 (2018) |
| Collin Morikawa | +2200 | N/A |
| Justin Rose | +2500 | N/A |
| Gary Woodland | +2800 | N/A |
Look familiar? Rory McIlroy tops the oddsboard once again at +1000. He was in the hunt last week but carded an ugly 74 in the final round to drop out of the top 30. Going back to McIlroy at a course that doesn't suit his strengths isn't advised.
Alongside McIlroy at +1000 is Justin Thomas, who also had a chance to win at Colonial but failed to make up ground on Sunday. Thomas was second in the field in strokes gained: approach last week, and his strong form in that regard should continue at Harbour Town. His number is simply too short to back, but it wouldn't be surprising if he's in a late final-round pairing.
Bryson DeChambeau put on a tee-to-green clinic last week with his newfound power off the tee. His odds have plummetted at Harbour Town, though; it's not a course that rewards 350-yard drives the way Colonial does.
Jon Rahm missed the cut in the PGA Tour's return to action and could still be brushing off some rust. Take a wait-and-see approach with the Spaniard.
The rest of the favorites are familiar names from the Charles Schwab Challenge. Xander Schauffele was the 54-hole leader and Gary Woodland was in the final pairing. Justin Rose was the co-leader after Round 1, but he missed a putt on 18 to come up short of the playoff that Collin Morikawa lost.
Morikawa, Schauffele, and Rose all boast shorter numbers for the RBC Heritage than they did for Colonial. If you want to go back to the well in hopes they can repeat last week's showing, feel free. But Woodland at +2800 is the most enticing. He led the field in strokes gained: approach at Colonial and typically does better at shorter venues, such as Pebble Beach where he won the 2019 U.S. Open.
The next tier
| Player | Odds | Best Heritage finishes (last 5 years) |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Koepka | +3000 | N/A |
| Daniel Berger | +3000 | T33 (2019) |
| Jordan Spieth | +3000 | T11 (2015) |
| Patrick Reed | +3000 | MC (2015) |
| Sungjae Im | +3000 | MC (2019) |
| Webb Simpson | +3000 | T5 (2018) |
| Dustin Johnson | +3500 | T16 (2018) |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 | N/A |
| Tony Finau | +4000 | T39 (2016) |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +4500 | T29 (2017) |
This tier could warrant 1,000 words on its own, but we'll try to keep it brief.
Will Daniel Berger go back-to-back? Highly unlikely, so cross him off the list. Jordan Spieth showed signs last week, but he once again relied heavily on his putter and is now +3000 instead of +4000. He can be safely glossed over as well.
Brooks Koepka at +3000 is obviously interesting. He made the cut last week, but his approach game was abysmal; Harbour Town won't reward his power game as other courses do. Perhaps it's best to see how he plays Thursday and revisit the four-time major winner's odds during the tournament.
Similar to Koepka, Dustin Johnson seems undervalued given his stature in the game. Johnson was the 54-hole leader at the RBC Heritage last year, but he's looked completely lost in multiple facets of the game this season. It's tough to see the world No. 5 ironing out his flaws on a course that demands precision over power.
Harbor Town suits Sungjae Im and Webb Simpson perfectly, but we'll return to them in a moment. The course is also a great fit for Hideki Matsuyama, who's making his return this week. The last time we saw Matsuyama, he shot 63 at TPC Sawgrass before The Players Championship was canceled. You won't find a better price than this man at +4000.
The long shots
Because of Harbour Town's setup, more players than usual have legitimate chances to win. The presence of many of the top players in the world certainly changes things, but recent winners like C.T. Pan, Satoshi Kodaira, and Wesley Bryan prove it's a wide-open affair.
Here are a few long shots to consider:
- Matt Kuchar (+5000): Calling "Kuch" a long shot is a bit disingenuous, but he's priced that way this week. He won the RBC Heritage in 2014 and was the runner-up last year. His worst finish in the last six editions of this event was a T23 in 2018.
- Abraham Ancer (+6000): Ancer displayed great striking last week. He was seventh in the field at Colonial in strokes gained: tee to green and gained strokes putting. His first Tour title is a matter of when - not if.
- Kevin Kisner (+6000): The native of South Carolina owns a great record at Harbour Town. He's coming off a week that saw him finish 16th in strokes gained: tee to green and uncharacteristically lose strokes putting. The change to Bermuda grass should help.
- Shane Lowry (+10000): The 2019 Open Champion missed the cut last week because he lost 5.4 strokes on the greens. He finished third at Harbour Town last year and has the pedigree to win strong-field tournaments.
Picks to win
Sungjae Im (+3000)
The current FedEx Cup leader didn't play exceptionally well at the Charles Schwab Challenge, but he did gain strokes in all areas of the game en route to a quiet top-10 finish. Im now heads to a short, Bermuda-grass course - similar to PGA National where he won the Honda Classic in March. It would be shocking if he's not in contention Sunday.
Webb Simpson (+3000)
Simpson showed signs of form before heading home early at Colonial. He gained strokes off the tee and through approach shots on Friday, rebounding from a disastrous first round. You can't expect one of the Tour's best putters on Bermuda grass to remain ice-cold on the greens at Harbour Town - a venue where he's recorded multiple top-five finishes. His odds would sit around +2000 for the RBC Heritage had he made the cut last week.
Shane Lowry (+10000)
There's a lot to like about the Irishman this week. First, he's ranked 22nd and is a recent major winner. Second, he finished in a tie for third last year at Harbour Town, a course that suits his accuracy, solid iron play, and world-class short game. Lowry was also playing well before the hiatus, and it was only two bad rounds of putting that led to a missed cut at Colonial. Rarely will you find a major winner who has some momentum heading to a course that suits his game priced at +10000.