Travelers Championship betting preview: Time for power to reign supreme

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If you followed last week's picks for the RBC Heritage, congrats on hitting Webb Simpson at +3000! Now let's do it again.

The Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands is on deck with a very similar crop of players teeing it up for the third straight week. However, what's different about this week is that TPC River Highlands will finally give the game's power players a chance to let it fly.

The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial and RBC Heritage at Harbour Town were both tight venues that placed an emphasis on finding fairways. That's far from the case this week. While short, TPC River Highlands is fairly wide open, and the longer hitters on Tour can easily turn this tournament into a pitch-and-putt event.

The course

• 6,841 yards, par 70
• Predominately bentgrass greens
• 10 par 4s under 450 yards

Previous winners

2019: Chez Reavie (-17) over Keegan Bradley, Zach Sucher
2018: Bubba Watson (-17) over Paul Casey, Stewart Cink, J.B. Holmes, Beau Hossler
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12) in a playoff over Daniel Berger
2016: Russell Knox (-14) over Jerry Kelly
2015: Bubba Watson (-16) in a playoff over Paul Casey
2014: Kevin Streelman (-16) over K.J. Choi, Sergio Garcia
2013: Ken Duke (-12) in a playoff over Chris Stroud
2012: Marc Leishman (-14) over Charley Hoffman

The favorites

All of the favorites have some course history at TPC River Highlands. The same couldn't be said about the previous two weeks.

Justin Thomas is downright scary at the top. He's trending toward a victory after back-to-back top-10s even while not playing exceptionally well. He made a run over the weekend at the RBC Heritage after making the cut on the number. However, he's lost strokes off the tee in five of his eight rounds since returning from the pandemic-induced hiatus. Until that gets sorted, he'll need to rely on a hot putter to win.

Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy are next at +1200. Both players can overpower TPC River Highlands, but the former is closer to finding the winner's circle.

Jon Rahm, like McIlroy, appears to be a bit rusty following the three-month break. If he was in the +2000 range, Rahm would be a more enticing option.

Webb Simpson is another player to pass on simply because winning back-to-back tournaments on the PGA Tour is incredibly difficult. You should also take a wait-and-see approach with Patrick Cantlay, who's making his first start since February.

Brooks Koepka appeared to find something last week at Harbour Town and got a taste of what contention feels like again. Expect big things from the former world No. 1.

Bubba Watson is a three-time Travelers Championship winner, and he's playing well since returning. No one would fault you for taking the long-hitting 41-year-old, but +2500 is a little too short.

The next tier

Dustin Johnson stands out as a value pick in this range, with the 36-year-old being priced as if he's still slumping.

However, his numbers show Johnson's struggles are arguably behind him. For a while, he looked lost with his irons, but last week at Harbour Town he gained 3.1 strokes on approach shots for a total of seven tee to green. Johnson will be in contention if he can get a few putts to drop.

Collin Morikawa's game fits TPC River Highlands, but his +3000 number is a little short. Same with the other three young studs in this range: Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, and Viktor Hovland. The world-class ball-strikers should do very well, but their price is simply too short to back.

The long shots

It doesn't feel like a long shot will come out of nowhere to win this week. Far too many elite players in the field are knocking at the door.

However, there are a couple of golfers you could target who might not win, but they may pay off in a top-10 or top-20 wager.

• Scottie Scheffler (+6000): After brushing off the rust at Colonial, Scheffler can use his length and strong wedge game to get into the mix.
• Marc Leishman (+7500): The Aussie already collected a victory on Tour this season, and he's a former winner at TPC River Highlands.
• Max Homa (+10000): Homa gained 6.2 strokes with approach shots last week and three off the tee. If he can chip and putt a little better, Homa is due for a rebound.
• Doc Redman (+15000): The former U.S. Amateur champion finished tied for 21st at the RBC Heritage while gaining 7.8 strokes through approaches. He's consistently undervalued and will find himself in contention sooner rather than later.

Picks to win

Bryson DeChambeau (+1200)

It's DeChambeau's time. If you're going to take one player for the Travelers Championship, it's him. He's completely retooled his game and is coming off two straight top-10 results despite being unable to unleash his newfound power yet.

The 26-year-old will be uncorking massive drives all week and constantly giving himself great looks at a birdie. If his ball-striking from the first two weeks after the hiatus continues, he'll gain so many strokes tee to green that an average putting week should get the job done.

Dustin Johnson (+3000)

This will likely be the last time we see Johnson priced above +2500. He's trending in the right direction and is another solid result away from being listed among the favorites.

Johnson can take full advantage of his length off the tee at TPC River Highlands, similar to the two players mentioned above. Backing him is an attempt to capitalize on the value that won't be around much longer.