Northern Trust betting preview: DJ, Scott present value as playoffs begin

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The Northern Trust opens up the 2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs. The postseason will allow bettors to close the door on the regular season and quickly forget about Jim Herman's win, which nobody cashed in on. Hey, that's golf betting for you!

TPC Boston will host the 124-man field - Vaughn Taylor withdrew - for the first leg of the playoffs. The course was a postseason staple for 12 years until 2019 when the playoffs were reduced from four events to three. The Boston area and New York area now rotate playoff events.

The course

• TPC Boston, Norton, Massachusetts
• 7,308 yards, par 71
• Bentgrass greens
• Five par 4s over 460
• Nos. 11-14 historically play over par

Past champions at TPC Boston

2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-16) over Justin Rose
2017: Justin Thomas (-17) over Jordan Spieth
2016: Rory McIlroy (-15) over Paul Casey
2015: Rickie Fowler (-15) over Henrik Stenson
2014: Chris Kirk (-15) over Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Geoff Ogilvy
2013: Henrik Stenson (-22) over Steve Stricker
2012: Rory McIlroy (-20) over Louis Oosthuizen

Betting on Tiger

Tiger Woods qualified for the playoffs despite playing only five PGA Tour events this season, the fewest of those who punched their ticket to The Northern Trust.

Sitting 49th in the points list, Tiger will need a solid result this weekend to continue his season. Luckily, like most courses, he's found success at TPC Boston in the past, hoisting a trophy here in 2006.

Additionally, Tiger at +3800 is about as big of a number as you'll ever see on the 82-time PGA Tour winner. The weather should be warm in Norton to keep Tiger's back loose. Plus, he played 18 holes at Winged Foot on Monday, so any health concerns can be tossed out the window.

Betting outlook: Green light. Fire away on Tiger if you are so inclined. Rarely will you be able to buy Woods at value at a course he's won at while he's coming off a week where he gained strokes in all categories except on the greens.

The favorites

The top of the betting board provides little value at first glance, even though those five golfers are all fully capable of winning The Northern Trust.

Bryson DeChambeau won at TPC Boston in 2018 and is coming off his best-ever result in a major. If you only want one player to bet on, he's the one, but +1000 is a little short considering the other options.

Justin Thomas is coming off a disappointing showing at the PGA Championship. You should expect a bounce back at some point, but betting on a rebound at +1200 is too risky.

The next tier

What will Collin Morikawa have to do to earn the betting world's respect? He's claimed two PGA Tour titles in his last four starts, yet he's sixth on the betting board. The 23-year should be priced around Thomas and Jon Rahm, so +2000 is a good bargain.

Dustin Johnson (+2200) is also undervalued. He's posted strong results at TPC Boston before and was a runner-up two weeks ago at TPC Harding Park. He'll look to collect his fifth playoff win, which would tie Rory McIlroy for the most ever.

Jason Day - who's recorded four straight top-seven results - is worth consideration at +2600. He's striking the ball brilliantly and gaining strokes in all facets of the game. Day is also a former runner-up at TPC Boston, so course fit isn't an issue.

Adam Scott at +4500 is an outstanding value. The Aussie is a former winner at TPC Boston and has six top-10 finishes at the course, the most of anyone in the field. He finished inside the top 25 at TPC Harding Park during his first start in six months, where he gained two strokes tee to green in Round 4.

The long shots

With the abundance of elite talent in the field, it's tough to envision a true long-shot winner like last week. However, there are a few notable names that have fallen down the oddsboard that are worth a look.

Tyrrell Hatton's solid ball-striking at TPC Harding Park got completely overshadowed by his poor display on the greens. Hatton (+5000) has six top-15 finishes, including a win, in his last eight PGA Tour events.

Call it crazy, but it's time to go back to Justin Rose (+7000) after his missed cut last week. Why? He played horribly in Round 1 at the Wyndham Championship but gained 1.7 strokes total in Round 2. His price would've been around +4000 had he made the cut last week.

Matthew Wolff (+7000) led the field in strokes gained: tee to green at the PGA Championship. That's a fantastic sign for the 21-year-old, who has gained strokes on the greens during his short career.

Picks to win

Dustin Johnson (+2000)

Johnson rides good form. It's as simple as that. When he's winning, or in contention, he typically rattles off one top-tier result after another. Want proof? Here are his best stretches over the last four years.

2016: 3rd - 5th - 1st - 1st - T9 - T2
2017: 3rd - 1st - 1st - 1st - T2
2018: T8 - 1st - 3rd - MC - 1st - T3
2019: 1st - T45 - T9 - 1st - T5 - T6

In Johnson's last five starts, he has a win, a runner-up at the PGA Championship, and a T12 at the WGC. He also shot 80-80-78 during that stretch, but Johnson is playing incredibly well overall and has two top 10s at TPC Boston in his last three appearances.

Adam Scott (+4500)

The only thing about Scott that bears repeating is that he is an amazing value at a course he's won at in the past. He also has the advantage of feeling fresh heading into the playoffs, having played only once since the restart, while others begin to wear down.

Justin Rose (+7000)

Rose was the runner-up to DeChambeau at TPC Boston in 2018. He was admittedly playing a lot better back then, but knowing he can compete at this week's venue should help him. Rose is only two weeks removed from being in the mix at the PGA Championship and has played one poor round in his last five, which is the sole reason for his huge price reduction.