NFL Week 1 best bets: Chargers' defense to dominate in opener
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The NFL season is finally upon us.
We're posting our best bets each Friday of the campaign. A word of caution, though, to take things slow for the first couple of weeks. Though it's tempting to dive in and bet seven or eight games every weekend, it's better to sit back and be patient amid all the certainty until we get a better read on the teams.
With that said, here are our best bets for Week 1:
Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 43) at Cincinnati Bengals
There is just too much value here on the Chargers. The Bengals were better than their record suggested in 2019 - losing eight games by one score or fewer - and will be vastly improved this season. However, rookie quarterback Joe Burrow faces a huge challenge when the Chargers' defense comes to town in Week 1.
The loss of stud safety Derwin James will be felt throughout the season, but Los Angeles' defensive front has the edge over a porous Bengals offensive line. There's maybe no bigger mismatch in the NFL than Chargers Pro Bowl defensive end Melvin Ingram versus Bengals journeyman right tackle Bobby Hart.
Cincinnati's defense allowed an NFL-worst 148.9 rushing yards per game last season, and the Chargers' recipe for success this season is to run the football with Tyrod Taylor starting under center following the departure of Philip Rivers.
The Bengals are a popular underdog with the public, with close to 60% of the bets coming in on them as of Friday morning. Fade the public 'dog here for our top play of Week 1.
Pick: Chargers -3
Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 43.5) at Washington Football Team
Washington is getting very little respect here despite Philadelphia being down two starting offensive linemen and expected to be without receivers Alshon Jeffery and rookie Jalen Reagor.
Ron Rivera will turn Washington around, and though there are still question marks about second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins, the defense has talent across the front seven. Under Rivera and Jack Del Rio, Washington's defense should be much improved from the unit that surrendered 27.2 points per game last season.
This is setting up to be a Pros versus Joes situation. As of Friday, 67% of the bets were on the Eagles, though 52% of the money is backing Washington, suggesting more sharp bettors are taking the home 'dog here.
With Rivera battling cancer, expect an inspired effort from Washington in what should be a close, low-scoring slugfest.
Picks: Washington +6, Under 43.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
(Betting percentages source: Sports Insights)
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.