NFL Week 9 best bets: Saints aren't worth your money
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I'm on a roll after consecutive weeks with 2-1 records, bringing my overall record to .500 this season. Here are my best bets for Week 9.
Saints at Buccaneers (-4.5, 50.5), 8:20 p.m. ET
Until they give me a reason not to do it, I'm fading the Saints. Since beating the Buccaneers in Week 1, they've gone 1-5 against the spread with two outright losses as favorites and four games that came down to the wire. Their offense has looked hamstrung without Michael Thomas, while their defense is struggling to force turnovers or get red-zone stops on third down.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers were two or three plays away from beating the Saints as Week 1 road underdogs. Since then, they've won six games by an average of 15.7 points and lost by one point as visitors on short rest, a result that's looking more and more like an outlier.
The Bucs are a top-two team in the league by nearly every metric, and the Saints simply aren't on their level. Even a healthy Thomas isn't enough to change that.
Pick: Buccaneers -4.5
Dolphins at Cardinals (-4.5, 49), 4:25 p.m.
There isn't much of a gap between these two teams, and if there is one, it certainly isn't 4.5 points. The Cardinals have logged one impressive win (over the Seahawks) and two head-scratching losses (to the Lions and Panthers), while the Dolphins are coming off three straight dominant victories (over the 49ers, Jets, and Rams).
Miami's defense came alive in Week 8, forcing three fumbles and snatching two interceptions while also scoring a touchdown. The unit has been quietly trending upward for weeks. The Dolphins' defense entered the year with talent but little chemistry, and now we're finally seeing defensive coordinator Josh Boyer's approach that features chaotic blitz schemes and relentless pressure come to life.
That could be the key to slowing Arizona's top-ranked offense (419.1 yards per game), which relies on Kyler Murray's ability to buy time in the pocket. If he can't do that Sunday, and Tua Tagovailoa holds his own against a shaky Cardinals defense, it'll be a long day for the favorites.
Pick: Dolphins +4.5
Giants at Washington (-3, 43), 1 p.m.
For whatever reason, Washington still isn't getting any respect in the betting market. The team opened as a 3.5-point favorite against the Giants and has moved to 3-point chalk, which implies these clubs would be roughly equal on a neutral site.
That simply isn't true. The Giants field the league's second-worst offense while averaging only 18.1 points per game, and their defense has been encouraging but still average. Washington boasts a legitimately top-tier defense, and a true star in Terry McLaurin and a budding one in Antonio Gibson lead the team's offense.
New York is an NFL-best 16-4 ATS on the road since 2018, though that's more a product of oddsmakers undervaluing the Giants in big underdog spots. But New York shouldn't be priced as an equal in this matchup, which makes Washington an easy buy.
Pick: Washington -3
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.