Will Bucs extend wild-card teams' incredible run in Super Bowls?
Of all of the things Tom Brady has done in his illustrious career, he had never played on a wild-card team before this season. Now, he's helped carry one to the Super Bowl, and recent history is on his side against the Chiefs (-3.5).
Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, 10 wild-card teams had advanced to the Super Bowl prior to the fifth-seeded Buccaneers' run this season. Despite being favored in just three of those games, the clubs went 6-4 straight up with a stellar 7-2-1 record against the spread.
Here's the full list of squads to reach the Super Bowl as a wild-card team:
| Super Bowl (Year) | Matchup | Result | SU | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV (2011) | Packers (-3) vs. Steelers | 31-25 | W | W |
| XLII (2008) | Giants (+12) vs. Patriots | 17-14 | W | W |
| XL (2006) | Steelers (-4) vs. Seahawks | 21-10 | W | W |
| XXXV (2001) | Ravens (-3) vs. Giants | 34-7 | W | W |
| XXXIV (2000) | Titans (+7) vs. Rams | 16-23 | L | P |
| XXXII (1998) | Broncos (+11) vs. Packers | 31-24 | W | W |
| XXVII (1993) | Bills (+6.5) vs. Cowboys | 17-52 | L | L |
| XX (1986) | Patriots (+10) vs. Bears | 10-46 | L | L |
| XV (1981) | Raiders (+3) vs. Eagles | 27-10 | W | W |
| X (1976) | Cowboys (+7) vs. Steelers | 17-21 | L | W |
A wild-card team hasn't gone to the Super Bowl since 2011, when Aaron Rodgers led the Packers on a storybook run for his lone championship. That win extended an excellent streak for wild-card teams, which have gone 5-0-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1998 while winning four straight by a combined 47 points.
Oddsmakers' confidence in Tampa Bay bodes well for the Bucs in this one. Among the 10 wild-card teams to reach the Super Bowl, the six clubs catching at least 6.5 points went 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS. The other four - all priced between +3 to -4 - went 4-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average of 15.3 points per game.
Those 2010-11 Packers were one of just five teams - including this year's Buccaneers - to win three road playoff games en route to a Super Bowl berth. The previous four went 3-1 SU/ATS, with only the 1985-86 Patriots falling short against the juggernaut Bears (-10).
The irony, of course, is that Tampa Bay is rewarded for its road success with a home game in Super Bowl LV, which has never happened before. It could be the bump the Buccaneers need to keep an impressive wild-card streak alive.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.