Buccaneers player props for Super Bowl LV
We've covered just about everything under the sun leading up to the Super Bowl, but now it's time for the bread and butter: player props.
In the first of our two-part feature, let's kick things off with the Buccaneers.
Tom Brady over/under 286.5 passing yards
If Brady performs anywhere in the neighborhood of his last four Super Bowl appearances, over bettors are in good shape. The veteran quarterback's averaged 48.8 attempts across that stretch, surpassing 300 yards with ease in three of them.
| Season | Opponent | C/A | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Rams | 21/35 | 262 |
| 2017 | Eagles | 28/48 | 505 |
| 2016 | Falcons | 43/62 | 466 |
| 2014 | Seahawks | 37/50 | 328 |
This number's criminally low for a player who quietly finished No. 3 in passing yards this season. Brady's been pushing the ball down the field lately, too: over his last eight games, he's connecting on gains of 15 or more on 16.67% of attempts - far and away the best rate in the league over that span.
The Chiefs rank No. 22 in DVOA defense - the easiest matchup for Brady and Co. all postseason - and No. 23 in explosive pass rate allowed.
Brady's volume could get out of hand if the track meet begins early.
Pick: Over
Tom Brady's longest completion over/under 39.5 yards
Brady's been throwing the deep ball so well, he deserves a separate blurb - and bet - for it. He finished the year No. 1 in deep ball attempts, money throws, air yards, and air yards per attempt.
Brady recorded a completion of 40 yards or longer in five straight to close out the regular season. He was held under the number versus two stout defenses - Washington and New Orleans - to open the postseason before connecting on a 52-yard gain in the NFC Championship Game. I see no reason he stops here.
The aforementioned passing volume, combined with a Chiefs secondary that allows big plays on roughly 10% of attempts, should result in at least one big chunk play from Brady and the offense.
Pick: Over
Ronald Jones over/under 35.5 rush yards
It's been a headache cracking the Bucs' backfield plans this season. Both Jones and Leonard Fournette have rotated atop the depth chart, but it's the latter who's got the hot hand. "Playoff Lenny" is averaging 70.3 rushing yards the last three games with a touchdown in each.
However, don't sleep on RoJo here. He finally returned to the lineup in the NFC title tilt, posting just 16 yards on 10 carries while playing just 28% of the snaps. He doesn't need a huge share this Sunday to get by the total.
Jones put up 66 yards on nine carries against Kansas City in the regular-season meeting. The Chiefs don't allow many big plays on the ground - they rank No. 4 in explosive rush rate - but they're statistically the second-worst run defense in the league, according to DVOA.
It may only take a couple of handoffs for Jones to smash this number.
Pick: Over
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.