Chiefs player props for Super Bowl LV
Serious question: Is there a team more fun to bet in the player prop market than the Chiefs?
The reigning champs are back in the Super Bowl yet again, and there's a potential shootout brewing against the Buccaneers. After recently previewing Tampa Bay's player props, let's dive into Kansas City's.
Here are the three that stick out.
Patrick Mahomes over/under 40.5 passing attempts
My favorite part about head coach Andy Reid and the rest of the Chiefs' offensive staff is they don't play into other defenses' strengths. Oh, you have a stout rushing attack? Fantastic, we'll just let our generational quarterback go berserk on your entire defense instead.
Kansas City only played three units ranking 10th or higher in rush DVOA this season, but the theme was obvious in each of those matchups: Throw, throw, and throw some more. Mahomes averaged a whopping 46 attempts over that sample, logging some unsurprisingly gaudy numbers along the way.
| Opponent | C/A | Yards | TD | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 31/42 | 416 | 5 | 144.4 |
| Buccaneers | 37/49 | 462 | 3 | 124.7 |
| Saints | 26/47 | 254 | 3 | 92.0 |
Reid's not going to win the game by challenging the league's best rush defense. The last time these two clubs met, Mahomes nearly recorded 50 attempts despite having a double-digit lead essentially the entire game.
This is one of the best bets on the board Sunday.
Pick: Over
Darrel Williams over/under 30.5 rushing yards
I'm penciling in Mahomes for a huge night, so naturally, I'm not too in love with either Williams or fellow running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The former's gained some traction of late, recording 130 rushing yards on 26 total carries over the last two playoff games as the latter's dealt with the injury bug.
However, the Bucs allow the fewest yards per carry and are a huge step up in competition from the Bills and Browns, which both sit in the back half of the league in rush DVOA.
Although there's not a ton of room for cushion, Williams should have a rather quiet night on the stat sheet.
Pick: Under
Mecole Hardman's longest reception over/under 16.5 yards
Players like Hardman, with breakaway speed and a knack for the big play, are always fan favorites come Super Bowl time. However, I think oddsmakers overshot this one.
The 22-year-old can go from zero to 60 in a snap - we saw it just a few weeks ago against the Bills on a 50-yard sweep that went for a TD - but the Chiefs haven't necessarily utilized him down the field. The wideout ranks only No. 50 at his position in deep targets, No. 54 in average target distance, and No. 111 in target rate.
Hardman has recorded a long of 17 or more through the air just three times in his last six games. With Kansas City's supporting cast healthy, Hardman won't get enough opportunities for a splash play.
Pick: Under
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.