Players Championship betting preview: Florida boys to shine at Sawgrass

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It's Players Championship week!

No, the TPC Sawgrass event isn't a major championship, but the field is extremely strong - as it always is - to give it a major-type feel.

Plus, there's a ton of money up for grabs. Any time the world's best show up to compete for the $2.7-million first-place prize, there will be a buzz in the air.

And from a betting angle, there are fewer tournaments more fun to wager on than The Players. TPC Sawgrass lends itself to a wide variety of winners as it doesn't favor a specific type of golfer, and there's a lot of luck required to avoid big numbers that can occur at nearly every hole.

The course

• Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
• 7,189 yards, par 72
• Designed by Pete Dye
• Water in play on 17 holes
• Greens are a blend of poa annua and bentgrass
• Driveable par-4 12th is only 302 yards
• Three of four par 5s are reachable in two by most
• Finishing holes of 16, 17, 18 are some of the most exciting in golf

Past winners

2020: Canceled
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16) over Jim Furyk
2018: Webb Simpson (-18) by four over three players
2017: Si Woo Kim (-10) over Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter
2016: Jason Day (-15) by four over Kevin Chappell
2015: Rickie Fowler (-12) in a playoff over Sergio Garcia, Kevin Kisner
2014: Martin Kaymer (-13) over Jim Furyk
2013: Tiger Woods (-13) over three players
2012: Matt Kuchar (-13) over four players
2011: K.J. Choi (-13) over David Toms

The favorites

Jon Rahm enters as the favorite with world No. 1 Dustin Johnson a close second. Rahm was the 54-hole leader in 2019, and Johnson can win anywhere on the planet, but, as mentioned earlier, this tournament is more wide open than other strong field events, so going to the top of the betting board isn't recommended.

TPC Sawgrass neutralizes Bryson DeChambeau's main weapon. That doesn't mean his length isn't an advantage but don't expect to see any 370-yard bombs at the tight Pete Dye-venue.

If forced to choose from a player under +2000, Rory McIlroy is the best option. The defending champion has been solid lately but still hasn't put it all together for four rounds. Perhaps defending his title is the spark he needs.

The next tier

This range is flush with both talent and value, and you could easily argue one of the names above will emerge victorious from the 154-man field.

First off, Justin Thomas at +2100 needs to be considered. He's been in a bit of a rut lately, which is why his odds have drifted above +2000. However, the world No. 3 gained 9.5 strokes through approach shots at the WGC-Workday Championship in late February to mark his career's second-best recorded performance. He's close to breaking out, and odds this large won't be around for much longer.

There's also a decision to be made between Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Cantlay. This trio of young stars are all serious contenders to hoist the trophy Sunday, but it's tough to justify taking one of them over Thomas with their prices so close to the 13-time winner.

Daniel Berger is the next name that jumps off the list at +3300. He's already a Tour winner this season and has a top-10 finish in his career at TPC Sawgrass. The career resumes between Schauffele, Cantlay, and Berger are very similar, but Berger is typically priced much higher than the others.

Finally, Tyrrell Hatton (+3500) and Patrick Reed (+4000) need to be on your radar. Hatton was second in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green last week, and Reed is priced this high because bettors simply don't like to pick him.

Long shots

Past Players Championships have been kind to long shots. They might not necessarily win, but there are often a few wildcards in contention late Sunday. Si Woo Kim was well over +10000 when he won, and McIlroy outdueled a 48-year-old Jim Furyk in the event's most recent edition.

Here are seven names worth considering, if not for the outright market, at least for a top-five or top-10 wager:

• Sungjae Im (+5500): The South Korean is underpriced at a course that should fit his game perfectly. He can do everything well, and Sawgrass has rewarded two of his fellow countrymen with titles since 2011.
• Joaquin Niemann (+6000): Niemann is mispriced compared to his peers (Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Im). The Chilean can get scorching hot with his irons and already has two runner-ups this season. Hopefully, his friend and former Players champion Sergio Garcia can lend him a few tips.
• Adam Scott (+8000): The Aussie won at TPC Sawgrass way back in 2004. Still, +8000 is a massive number on a proven winner who tends to show up at the season's biggest events.
• Harris English (+10000): English's course history isn't good, but he shot 7-under before the event was canceled last year. At +10000, there are far worse golfers to back than the 18th ranked player in the world.
• Si Woo Kim (+12500): He's done it before, so why not again? Kim loves Pete Dye-designed courses and already bagged a title at another similar layout this season. He also shot 7-under before the event was canceled last year.
• Chris Kirk (+15000): He gained 7.5 strokes tee-to-green last week and has two top-11 showings in five trips to TPC Sawgrass.
• Gary Woodland (+20000): He's a former U.S. Open champion who typically plays better on shorter courses. This number for Woodland is jarring when compared to other players in his range.

Picks to win

Justin Thomas (+2100)

Third times the charm, right? If you've followed along, Thomas was a selection at both the Genesis Invitational and WGC-Workday Championship but failed to deliver.

However, the Florida resident's efforts at The Concession Golf Club were encouraging. He gained a whopping 9.5 strokes through his approach shots, which is crucial to success at TPC Sawgrass. If he can clean up his off-the-tee game, there's little doubt Thomas will be in contention.

Schauffele, Cantlay, and Morikawa were all considered for this pick, but it ultimately came down to who can be trusted most to seal the deal Sunday. Thomas is the most proven winner out of this group and is rarely priced above +2000.

Daniel Berger (+3300)

Next, it came down to Reed and Berger for the second pick with the latter getting the nod.

Berger lines up very well at TPC Sawgrass. He's not crazy long off the tee but hits it really straight and can get hot with his irons. He's also a great chipper and putter, which will help convert much-needed birdies on the par 5s.

Most of the Florida native's top performances have come on shorter-than-average courses on the PGA Tour, as well. His two most recent victories were at Colonial Country Club in June and Pebble Beach in February, which are hosted on venues of similar length to TPC Sawgrass.

Joaquin Niemann (+6000)

Lastly, Niemann is poised to break out at TPC Sawgrass in a similar fashion to Scott and Rickie Fowler, who both collected their first marquee victory at The Players.

Niemann is a world-class ball-striker and has gained strokes tee-to-green in nine consecutive events. He contented twice to begin 2021 with back-to-back runner-up showings in Hawaii.

The 22-year-old isn't getting enough respect compared to his peers. He may not have the same number of quality wins as Morikawa, but he's gained more total strokes per round than Morikawa, Im, and Scheffler over his last 50 rounds and ranks 16th overall in that same stat compared to the rest of the Players field.