NBA MVP odds: Embiid enters 2nd half as betting favorite
It's been 21 years since a true center was the NBA's most valuable player, when Shaquille O'Neal dominated the league in 1999-00. If the current betting odds are any indication, that streak could end this season.
76ers star center Joel Embiid enters the campaign's second half as the +190 favorite to win his first career MVP award - surpassing previous favorite LeBron James (+260) just before the All-Star break after his 40-point, 19-rebound game in Philadelphia's win over the Jazz on Wednesday.
It was the fifth 40-point game this season for Embiid, who ranks second in the league in scoring (30.2), fifth in rebounds (11.6), and eighth in field-goal percentage (52.1%) among players with at least 15 attempts per game. He's also one of just seven players with at least one block and one steal per game; unsurprisingly, the 76ers allow 7.0 fewer points per game when he's active.
In fact, Philly is 23-7 this year with Embiid - which would be the best record in the league across a full season - and a meager 1-5 without him. That combined 24-12 record is still good enough to pace the East through the first half of the season and is a half-game ahead of James' Lakers, who own the West's third seed after a 2-6 slide before the break.
If Anthony Davis' pending return boosts Los Angeles' final record, it should be enough to buoy James' candidacy. The four-time MVP winner has carried the Lakers for much of this season and is one of three players with at least 25.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game - a stat line on par with his past MVP seasons.
The only issue? Nikola Jokic (+480) is also one of those three players, and he's built the best statistical case of the top MVP contenders. The Nuggets star is the league's runaway leader in win shares (8.3) and BPM (11.6), and his advanced defensive numbers have been on par with Embiid and James this season. His team also owns a similar record to those stars' and has a better net rating despite facing a tougher schedule.
That's to say nothing of the dark-horse candidates like Stephen Curry (+1200) and Damian Lillard (+2100), who have carried their teams through adversity to potential playoff berths in a loaded Western Conference. Both players offer more value than Embiid, who's earned his short price but isn't an obvious enough choice to warrant betting on it.
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | +190 |
| LeBron James | +260 |
| Nikola Jokic | +480 |
| Stephen Curry | +1200 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +1800 |
| James Harden | +1800 |
| Luka Doncic | +1800 |
| Damian Lillard | +2100 |
| Kawhi Leonard | +2100 |
| Kevin Durant | +2500 |
| Donovan Mitchell | +6500 |
| Paul George | +6500 |
| Devin Booker | +8500 |
(Odds listed for players priced shorter than 100-1)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.