NFL preseason betting guide: 5 tips to turn a profit on exhibition football

It's been two years since we last enjoyed NFL preseason betting, and this year's schedule is condensed to three weeks instead of four. Still, that's plenty of meaningless football for the speculative bettor to make a profit on.

Sound like a fool's errand? Not if you know where to find value and how to attack it. Here are five tips for betting on the NFL preseason:

Do the research

While being informed is always important for any NFL bettor, it's absolutely vital to gaining an edge in the preseason, a period when books and casual bettors often have the same access to key information about how teams prepare.

Because coaches aren't overly concerned with wins or losses in exhibition games, they're much freer with information about who will play, what schemes they'll run, and even what plays and formations they might employ in key spots. The preseason is about repetition - even if the opponent knows what's coming.

That can play right into your hands as a bettor. The Cowboys and Steelers, for example, were clear about not playing their starting quarterbacks in last week's Hall of Fame Game, and we targeted the under for a comfortable win. Sometimes, all it takes is a little research.

Pick your spots

Not every game is worth betting, and that's especially true in the preseason. While oddsmakers are working at a deficit when it comes to information, bettors are, too. That can sometimes leave little advantage.

When your research leads you to a spot worth playing, take your shot. If one team plans to play its starters for a half while the other won't play its starters at all, target the first-half line on the former. If two clubs are both rolling out the first-teamers for an entire half, and oddsmakers have it priced as a pick 'em, don't hesitate to play the better team.

For most of the preseason, though, it's better to watch from the sidelines. Many of these contests feature fringe NFL players running new schemes with personal stakes driving their play, which leaves too many variables to find a true edge. When you find one, attack it. But don't force a play.

Check depth charts

Starters have traditionally only played a few drives before the third week of exhibition play, and we could see fewer starters than ever before in this truncated preseason. That leaves bettors relying largely on backups to cash their bets.

So, even in weeks when starters will play a quarter or two, get comfortable with the depth charts of the teams you're backing. That's especially true at the quarterback position, where a good backup or heated competition can mean an easy profit.

Take a look at the Broncos, who have yet to decide if Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater will be their Week 1 starter. Head coach Vic Fangio plans to play each quarterback for "more than one quarter," according to Troy Renck of Denver7, which means more time for both to prove their worth as a starter against second-team defenses.

Another example is the Raiders, who have one of the best backup QBs in the league in Marcus Mariota to spell Derek Carr. Mariota has been open about his desire to earn a starting job somewhere, so he's a worthwhile bet to produce in his preseason reps. Las Vegas also has a strong rushing duo in Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, which gives the Raiders at least one high-level offensive weapon even once the starters have been shelved.

Know your coaches

Not every coach approaches the preseason the same way. Knowing which coaches to bet in which spots is paramount to preseason success.

The clearest example is Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, who has been vocal about valuing success in the preseason. As a result, Baltimore is a stellar 37-12 straight up and 34-15 against the spread in exhibition games under Harbaugh, with a ridiculous 17-game winning streak.

Some coaches are better in certain preseason spots, too. Saints head coach Sean Payton is 11-3 in Week 3 - when starters typically play the most - but he's 2-12 in Week 4 when they play the least. Raiders head coach Jon Gruden is a combined 17-2 in Weeks 1 and 4 - when coaching and motivation often trump talent - but a less inspiring 8-10 in Weeks 2 and 3.

Don't blindly bet overs

One of the biggest differences in the preseason compared to the regular season is the shockingly low totals. The highest total in Week 1 of exhibition play is currently 39.5. That mark is lower than the lowest total in Week 1 of the regular season (42.5).

That doesn't mean you should slam the over, though. Of the 22 active NFL head coaches who have coached at least one preseason game, 14 have better records to the under, while only six have been better to the over. Overs were the better bet in the early 2010s, but the under has been the obvious play since oddsmakers boosted totals in 2013.

It's been almost two years since we've seen preseason football, so you shouldn't blindly bet either side without seeing how teams react to this shortened slate. But even with totals this low, the under is worth an extra look.