Ask yourself this, have I been betting on the Miami Dolphins the past two years because of their great quarterback play?
You haven't. It's been down to the Dolphins' quality coaching and defense, which allows them to take advantage of other teams' mistakes. The reality is their quarterback play has topped out at average under head coach Brian Flores.
If you're looking to back the Raiders at over a field goal, instead of the PK lookahead line that was available before Tua Tagovailoa's broken ribs and Las Vegas' 2-0 start, you need to believe that Jacoby Brissett's involvement this week indicates a downgrade at quarterback.
While Tagovailoa is the future for the Dolphins, here are his numbers through 12 career starts compared to Brissett's 30 starts. Remember, the Colts forced Brissett into full-time duty after Andrew Luck retired:
| Quarterback | GS | TD | INT | Passer Rating | Yards/Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 12 | 12 | 6 | 85.8 | 6.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 30 | 31 | 14 | 84.9 | 6.6 |
Both players are good for one touchdown per game and an interception every two. Tagovailoa's rating is marginally better, while Brissett has completed passes slightly deeper down the field.
Meanwhile, Miami needed to replace Tagovailoa midway through its visit to Vegas last season. So, what are we downgrading the Dolphins for again?
The answer is probably the 35-0 loss last week at home to Buffalo, but the score was misleading. The Dolphins held the Bills to just 4.9 yards per play. They'll win the game outright if they can do the same to the Raiders. Switching from left-handed Tagovailoa to right-handed Brissett mid-game can be tricky in regards to the playbook and protections, so expect more than 3.1 yards per play from Miami this week.
When we've backed the Dolphins, we've done so for the sum of their parts compared to market perception. They're 9-3 against the spread as a road underdog over the past two years and won their last four straight up in that role, including a Week 1 win in New England as 3-point underdogs. All this begs the question, are we confident the Raiders are better than the Patriots?
My numbers make Vegas 1.9 points better than Miami in this situation. You wouldn't have wanted anything to do with the Raiders through 55 minutes of their opener against the Ravens. While we don't know what would have happened if T.J. Watt hadn't been removed from the equation this past Sunday, it's not a coincidence the touchdowns started to come for Las Vegas after Watt was in civvies.
Here's another question for you to ponder. Has Jon Gruden changed his stripes?
The Raiders have given up an average of more than 30 points over their nine home games since the start of last season. Unsurprisingly, they're also 0-4 against the spread when favored by more than four points under Gruden.
While it would be a lot spicier to give you a bigger upset, like Washington +300 over the Bills, for example (wink, wink, nudge, nudge), we set the parameters for the upset of the week as a contest opening with a line higher than -3.5. Thankfully, the market pushed it past that threshold, and we'll take the value with the Dolphins in an attempt to start the season 3-0 on our upset picks.
Pick: Dolphins +170
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
