NFL Week 6 player props: Taking end zone shots

It's a bona fide heater, as a 6-3 week moves our player prop record to 21-8 over the last three weeks. Coincidence? Maybe. But the progression of the NFL season means a better understanding of teams and their deployment strategies.

James Robinson over 71.5 rushing yards

There are reasons to like Robinson this week - not the least of which is a Dolphins defense that's been sieve-like against running backs this season.

The Jaguars will rely on Robinson during their trip to London and could have an opportunity to salt away their first win in over a year. Whether it's getting them into that position with a big day or acting as a closer, Robinson makes a run at 100 yards on Sunday morning.

Davante Adams under 96.5 receiving yards

It's never fun fading one of the top players at his position, but the Bears have recently done well against Adams, who's cracked 70 yards just once in the Packers' last four meetings with Chicago. That's because the Bears are able to rush just four, as they rank top five in the NFL in low blitz frequency. That enables them to roll coverage toward Adams and leave a safety on his side to prevent long completions.

Davis Mills over 217.5 passing yards

Is Mills good? Starting your career by being thrown into the fire trailing the Browns, drawing a short week for your first start, and then facing a deluge against arguably the league's best team in the Bills is not ideal for first impressions.

Mills and the Texans finally had a normal situation last week, with full prep and reasonable conditions against an average football team. The 22-year-old threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots.

Now Mills gets a Colts team that Lamar Jackson shredded just six days ago. Whether Houston is trailing or finding early success, Mills should clear this expectation and build on his second chance to make a first impression.

Demarcus Robinson anytime touchdown +400

Here's an example of why measuring records can be unfair. This one's probably not going to win, as indicated by the juicy payout. But we'll take a shot here with Robinson against an utterly disastrous Washington secondary.

Tyreek Hill is questionable with a quad issue, and Washington will give him its full attention if he plays. Either way, there will be opportunities for the rest of the Chiefs' wide receivers. Byron Pringle has shorter odds because he has more catches and touchdowns, but Robinson plays 70% of Kansas City's offensive snaps; Pringle has played just 32.5%. Mecole Hardman has also played less than Robinson and is +140 for a touchdown, so we'll target the bigger payout here.

Donald Parham anytime touchdown +350

Why not take another swing here? It's no coincidence the Chargers' red-zone offense improved once they started looking to Parham, who has two straight games with a touchdown.

Mike Williams is shaky to play this week, so Parham might be the best big-body option for Justin Herbert. Herbert's confidence is high with the Chargers' little-known tight end, who's only played eight fewer snaps per game than more heralded teammate Jared Cook (+190 to score).

Evan Engram over 32.5 receiving yards

Some might think this a conservative bet, but nothing is reliable when it comes to Evan Engram. Still, Daniel Jones should be looking to get the ball out quickly against the Rams, and there may be plenty of attempts underneath if the Giants are trailing. Engram can gobble up targets and crawl over this low total with few healthy alternatives at Jones' disposal.

Sam Darnold under 255.5 passing yards

The shine has faded from Darnold after the first three games of the season against vulnerable opponents. The Vikings won't pull away from the Panthers - that's not their style - so Darnold won't have to throw a ton while trailing. Carolina has to dial down the risky throws, and it won't have the bonus yards after the catch that Christian McCaffrey provides.

Baker Mayfield under 31.5 pass attempts

Wind is in the forecast off the shores of Lake Erie, which suits the Browns just fine. They had a trio of similar scenarios last year, and Mayfield threw 25, 22, and 20 passes in those contests. Nick Chubb's absence might suggest Cleveland will throw more, but the Browns have options behind Kareem Hunt to keep the ball on the ground against the Cardinals.

Derek Carr over 6.5 rush yards

The Raiders' offense will have a tough time against the Broncos without the voice that's been in Carr's ear for the last four years. Carr will be more hesitant with his reads and more likely to take off running for the sideline. Two scrambles should get this home.

Mac Jones under 0.5 interceptions

The Patriots won't test Trevon Diggs this week, and Josh McDaniels will put Jones in position for a clean game against the Cowboys. It won't be flashy, but Jones will do enough to give New England a chance to win by not turning the ball over.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.