NFL upset of the week: Can Saints march to victory?

Carson Wentz had us worried. His fumberception (intercumble?) in the red zone in the second quarter in San Francisco was reminiscent of his time with the Eagles - not what we expected for our live underdog of the week. But the Colts overcame their only turnover of the game to beat the 49ers and score us yet another winner on the moneyline. We move to 5-2 (+7.9 units) on our weekly pick to surprise.

We're going big-game hunting this week. The Bears and Jaguars have fallen out of contention for "Upset of the Week" since they're just three-point underdogs; our parameters require a 3.5-point 'dog and/or +150 on the moneyline.

Teams favored by 7.5 points or more are undefeated in the NFL this season, so it makes sense to look for an upset that's lined closer than the general public perhaps thinks that it should be.

The market

The New Orleans Saints didn't make any friends on Monday Night Football; barely beating the Geno Smith edition of the Seahawks will earn a team a little disdain. Sure enough, the ticket counters can see the Buccaneers receiving greater than 80% of the ticket share for this matchup. The uninitiated will wonder aloud, "Why isn't this game lined higher?"

But it's actually lined too high.

My numbers make the Buccaneers just 3.3 points better in New Orleans. It's not the sportsbooks' fault that people will line up to bet the defending champions at an inflated price. I still rate Tampa as the best team in the NFL, so it's hard to imagine I'm too low on the visitors here.

Am I too high on New Orleans? I have the Saints at 56/100, with a home-field advantage of 2.2 points in this game. It's up to you to judge if any of that is off base.

Slowing down Tom-pa Bay

There's plenty of talk about the Buccaneers' incredible run defense, but it's the Saints who lead the league in opponents' yards per carry. While the run game isn't the primary weapon with Tom Brady at the helm, the play-action pass certainly is. A low blitz rate helps the Saints in coverage as well.

What if there was more New Orleans could do? What if it had an ace in the hole?

David Onyemata racked up 6.5 sacks last season from the middle of the Saints' defensive line. After a positive offseason test for performance-enhancing drugs landed him a six-game suspension, Onyemata returns to join teammates Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan on a defense that's already one of the best in the league.

Then there's the matter of the matchup. Here's a look at Brady's numbers in these teams' three meetings last season:

This play isn't as scary when you realize Brady has four touchdowns and five interceptions in his last three games against the Saints and hasn't cleared 239 yards in any of them.

Letting Jameis cook?

For all of Jameis Winston's foibles, he might be the passer who can finally cause problems for the Buccaneers' banged-up secondary. Unsurprisingly, Jacoby Brissett, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields could not. Saints head coach Sean Payton will let Winston use his arm strength to take deep shots because he'll need to if New Orleans hopes to win this game. It was clear early on Monday night that the Saints could be more conservative and leave Seattle with a victory, but that won't be the case here.

It will help New Orleans if Taysom Hill returns. As much as observers like to joke about Hill's involvement when things go awry, he provides an added element to plan against and be wary of - especially since he can also put the ball in the air to test Tampa's secondary and convert red-zone opportunities.

In the end, like most NFL games, this will come down to the trenches. The Saints are the rare team that can match what the Buccaneers' front seven can bring, as New Orleans' strength comes from its offensive line. That line had been missing left tackle Terron Armstead and center Erik McCoy in the team's overtime loss to the Giants, but both returned against Seattle.

Finally, the market and public perception around the Saints are built on two pillars of their season thus far.

The first is the comparison to themselves. The Saints' brand is of a high-powered offense that should be feared regardless of the time left on the clock. But this New Orleans team is about defense and conservative offense, and we don't know how to reconcile that as bettors.

The second is that the Saints have played just one game at home; the Caesars Superdome certainly provides a significant noise advantage to trouble the opposition. Getting 2-to-1 odds on an outright win is more than enough to back New Orleans to make the NFC South interesting.

Pick: Saints +200

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.