CFB Week 10 Best Bets: 7 'dogs with value

Yet again we saw value in Texas in Week 9; yet again it took a considerable lead; yet again the team coughed it up in the second half. Longhorns football is holding everyone up at hornpoint.

Whether we aim blame toward Austin or Colorado State, which tripped and fell after leading 13-0 against Boise State, another 3-4 week slips the overall season record to 35-27-1. As we drift away from the dream of 60%, here are seven underdog value plays for Week 10.

SMU @ Memphis (+4.5, 70.5)

Things crashed down to earth for SMU last week. An almost-walk-off kick-return touchdown gave the Mustangs their first loss of the season. Their road win at TCU doesn't look as attractive in a new light, so I'm looking to fade the Mustangs now that it's been determined they're not a Group of Five team of destiny.

We're getting 4.5 points with Memphis because the Tigers haven't been what we'd previously grown accustomed to this season. After a week off, they can score on SMU to make this game interesting and potentially get a nice win at home.

Pick: Memphis +4.5

No. 5 Ohio State @ Nebraska (+14.5, 64)

We couldn't have been more confused by Nebraska, which has a reputation for hanging with good teams in a losing cause, giving 7.5 points to Purdue last week. Well, here we are! The Cornhuskers get their preferred situation as home underdogs against Ohio State, which is coming off a semi-sloppy performance versus Penn State.

I'm still waiting for the Buckeyes to justify their ranking with a big-time performance against a decent team. Two months ago, they were -14 at Minnesota; one month ago, they were -7.5 at Rutgers. Nebraska's better than both those teams, so while I expect an OSU win, the Cornhuskers should linger in the second half.

Pick: Nebraska +14.5

Liberty @ No. 16 Ole Miss (-10, 67.5)

The Hugh Freeze Bowl! The former Ole Miss coach returns to Oxford with a wounded team waiting. Now that the Rebels are through the roughest part of their schedule, and after Auburn outlasted them in a tough spot for Ole Miss, what do Matt Corral and Co. have left for a game that doesn't resonate?

Liberty has disappointed this season, but the high hopes for Malik Willis weren't unfounded. As long as he's involved, this game, which amounts to the Flames' biggest contest of the season, should stay inside double digits in an early kickoff spot for the faithful in The Grove.

Pick: Liberty +10

California @ Arizona (+12, 50.5)

I was hoping to avoid betting on Arizona this season. However, the Wildcats are showing some signs of life coming out of the fiasco that was the Kevin Sumlin era. They return home after hanging with USC, and they probably should've beaten Washington two weeks ago after taking a 13-0 lead into halftime.

California is 3-5, and the only time the Golden Bears have been double-digit favorites this season was at home to Sacramento State. The Wildcats are winless, but they're not Sac State.

Pick: Arizona +12

No. 17 Mississippi State @ Arkansas (-5, 55.5)

Mississippi State gave up a punt-return touchdown for the first score of the game against Kentucky last week. Then, all the Bulldogs did was shut down the Wildcats while getting anything they wanted offensively with Will Rogers and Mike Leach's Air Raid.

We're getting close to a touchdown because Mississippi State has suffered some unfortunate losses (Memphis, LSU) and a blowout at the hands of Alabama, but the offense is cooking and the defense has held up against the run-first SEC teams. This contest feels like a field-goal game, and I think the Bulldogs have a shot at the outright win.

Pick: Mississippi State +5

Clemson @ Louisville (+4, 46)

Clemson finally covered last week, and all it took was one of the most horrific beats in the history of time.

Now the Tigers head out on the road expecting their defense to slow down Malik Cunningham. Maybe it can, but then Clemson's offense would have to do something in turn to earn a late lead greater than a field goal. Both of these things happening Saturday seems unlikely to me.

Pick: Louisville +4

No. 24 San Diego State @ Hawaii (+7.5, 45)

This is probably my favorite bet. San Diego State is still somehow ranked after showing its true colors last week in a loss to Fresno, and the Aztecs are giving over a touchdown to Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors are in prime position for an upset win as they're much better at home than on the mainland.

Pick: Hawaii +7.5

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.