NFL Week 9 round-robin moneyline parlay: Beating the price moves

We got back in the cash with a 3-2 record in Week 8, breaking our string of 2-3 results. However, one can never be fully satisfied, as the New York Giants and their Scarecrow head coach lost to the Chiefs and put a blockade on our potential yellow brick road in Kansas (City).

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset like in Week 8, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.

Who to play

Falcons +235

A fun matchup here, if it was five years ago. Instead, it's more about the intrigue with two teams the market has no idea what to do with. The New Orleans Saints are the Jekyll and Hyde team of the year, while the Atlanta Falcons got love as favorites against the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins, but everyone has since jumped ship following another disappointing home loss.

Few wanted much to do with the Saints last week, but now they're significant favorites with some combination of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill taking snaps. That's a combination that will keep you in games while your defense goes to work - ideal as a six-point underdog, not so much as a six-point favorite.

Though Tom Brady has struggled against the Saints, Matt Ryan has good numbers against New Orleans, with a 90.7 passer rating and 20 touchdowns to 11 interceptions for his career. Neither team is going to light up the scoreboard, so it will come down to turnovers. This is the rare instance when Ryan might be the guy less likely to make a critical mistake. In a close game, a better than 2-1 payout is worth fading a team coming off an emotional victory.

Browns +115

This is purely a numbers play. You might be wondering why this line is only Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 given the state of the Cleveland Browns, but my numbers actually give the latter a -0.8 advantage. Therefore, we're getting plus-money on a coin-flip game.

I don't love Baker Mayfield any more than you do, but the Bengals were +6.5 in Baltimore versus the Ravens and +3 against the Green Bay Packers. It doesn't add up that they're -2.5 against the Browns when they were only -3.5 at Detroit against the Lions. Home-field advantage doesn't matter that much to make up the one-point difference.

Texans +210

We had a raucous edition of the upset of the week yesterday, and we've got a two-for-one special for Week 9. So you can get deep into the weeds with this game, along with the final matchup we're including.

The bet here is on Tyrod Taylor and, in an ideal world, Laremy Tunsil returning for the Houston Texans. News of Taylor's return sent the line downward and dropped the moneyline price, but it's still well worth playing.

49ers +105

Speaking of jumping on a number: run, don't walk, to grab the San Francisco 49ers at a plus-price where you can. Kyler Murray is a game-time decision, but we've been down this road before (see: Dak Prescott last week). Even if Murray plays, he reportedly has a leg injury that needs one-to-three weeks to heal, so his mobility will be limited at best.

The 49ers are getting healthier, with a handful of defensive players returning, along with their most important star, George Kittle. This will be the closest San Francisco has come to full health in a game it desperately needs to get back into the wild-card mix. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals can afford to lose without turning the season upside down.

Bears +220

As mentioned, the details on what I'm hoping for from the Chicago Bears can be found here. As excited as some may get about the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense, its yards allowed per play is actually in the middle of the pack, and it doesn't turn teams over (0.9 per game) like it used to. If you can almost lose to Geno Smith, you can lose to Justin Fields.

Here's how the odds shake down this week.

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.