NFL Week 9 player props: Putting RB usage under the microscope

We went 4-6 in Week 8 for our first losing week since Week 1. Anyone watching Buccaneers-Saints saw Tom Brady struggle, yet he went over his yards total due to a comeback game script. The Panthers beat the Falcons with such surprising ease that they didn't need Sam Darnold to throw in the second half, while Ryan Tannehill needed overtime to bust our under. You just never know.

Here's what's on tap for a bounce-back Week 9:

Jerry Jeudy over 53.5 receiving yards

Jeudy returned from an injury last week after not playing since Week 1, and he caught all four of his targets for 39 yards in a sloppy game against Washington. Jeudy should have his legs under him this week, and he'll need them in a more open game than the Broncos are used to.

Teddy Bridgewater's passing yards number at 261.5 is higher than his season average, which suggests the market expects more offense from the Broncos in their matchup with the Cowboys. We'd rather focus on Jeudy, who should benefit from Trevon Diggs honing in on Courtland Sutton.

Alvin Kamara under 75.5 rushing yards

This is no slight on Kamara; he may lead the game in receiving yards when the Saints face the Falcons. But New Orleans has two other rushing options it didn't have two weeks ago. Mark Ingram will cut into the traditional carries now that he's had more time to reacquaint himself, while Taysom Hill will run the ball a fair amount as well. Kamara's impact on this matchup will come in the passing game.

Austin Hooper over 24.5 receiving yards

We're hangin' with Hooper here, as he's been increasingly involved over the Browns' last two games after a slow start. It stands to reason Baker Mayfield was forcing balls to various wide receivers, including royal malcontent Odell Beckham Jr. Now that Beckham is gone, Cleveland can confidently use two-tight end sets and work Hooper into the play-action game. Look for Hooper to see around five targets and manage 30-plus yards; though Hooper missed last year's road clash with the Bengals, his replacement Hunter Bryant had four receptions for 58 yards.

Tyrod Taylor over 20.5 rushing yards

We didn't wait week after week for the return of Taylor not to have him impact this game with his legs. Without Laremy Tunsil to protect his blind side, the Texans will need Taylor to scramble against the Dolphins.

Darren Waller over 5.5 receptions

Waller's last off-Broadway performance was a stellar one as he notched 13 catches for 200 yards last season against the Jets. With Derek Carr having one less option to throw to and Waller back after missing a game before the Raiders' bye, look for the quarterback and tight end to connect in a way they haven't since the season opener. Waller gets double-digit targets and hauls in more than half of them against the Giants.

Lamar Jackson over 245.5 passing yards

Mike Zimmer is a few years behind strategically, which means he's probably going into this game intent on forcing Jackson to win with his arm; the Vikings give up the fifth-most yards per quarterback rush attempt. But the Ravens signal-caller is absolutely fine beating opponents through the air, ranking fifth in the NFL in net yards gained per pass attempt.

Austin Ekeler under 63.5 rushing yards

As with Kamara, this is not a fade of Ekeler - it's an expectation that he'll be key in a game plan that sees Justin Herbert frequently throwing the ball against the Eagles' zone-heavy defense. Herbert has more success against zone coverage, and Ekeler can still be involved to help the Chargers slow down Philadelphia's front four via screens and dump-offs.

Elijah Mitchell anytime touchdown (+105)

The Cardinals' injury uncertainty leaves little selection here. George Kittle is back for the 49ers, and though he will help their passing game, he's also an all-world blocker in the run game. Elijah Mitchell has already been a good bet without Kittle in front of him, so we'll play him to find the end zone (and over his rush yards once that market becomes available).

AJ Dillon over 37.5 rushing yards

We just saw this last week: Dillon SZN gets extended for another game. The Packers face another favorable opponent for their run game in the Chiefs and will lean on Aaron Jones and Dillon for a second straight week. Dillon had 16 carries last week; anything more than half of that should generate an over winner against Kansas City's much-maligned defense.

Jeremy McNichols anytime touchdown +200

McNichols could be the second-best running back on the planet, and no one would ever know. That's hyperbole, of course, but anyone who plays behind Derrick Henry never gets a chance to show his stuff. Until now. McNichols is a weapon in the passing game and should now get first crack on the ground for the Titans. Let's see if he can find pay dirt for a payout Sunday night against the Rams.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.