NFL Week 14 round-robin moneyline parlay: Slim pickings for fat underdogs

We've gone from a week with nothing but short underdogs to a week with numerous teams that have long odds to win. The former is never good when putting together a football betting lottery ticket. The latter is only great at the start of the season when we can take advantage of uncertainty.

Had this week's games been played at the start of the season, the Cardinals and Bengals might have been home underdogs. Meanwhile, the Giants and Bears would have at least an outside chance of winning at full health. This week's card shows how difficult it is to come by live underdogs, which is why we always like to get the wins early in the season.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset like in Week 8, Week 10, and Week 11, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.

Who to play

Raiders +350

Fundamentally, the strategy for this bet should be two long shots and three reasonably priced value plays. Of the group available as big underdogs, the Raiders are the only team with the offensive capability to keep up with their more lauded opponents.

The scoreboard in the previous matchup was unflattering for the Raiders and DeSean Jackson, whose fumble made the fourth quarter very interesting. Las Vegas went into Arrowhead last year and handed the Chiefs a rare home defeat. Getting Darren Waller back would really help them produce a similar result. At +350, we've got to juice this up with something so we'll fade the Chiefs, as their offense still doesn't seem right.

Jets +185

The Jets' offense looked just spicy enough to work through the first half against the Eagles. However, we're going up against a Saints team that I have a hard time believing should be favored by close to a touchdown against anyone. With Taysom Hill still rife with mallet finger and some starters returning, this number is too high and the Jets are live to win outright.

Bills +150

I wrote in the upset of the week about how highly I rate playing a team coming off a high-profile loss. The Bills should feel some relief playing in normal conditions, even though Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are not ideal opponents. Still, the Tampa Bay matchup is the only one that would price Buffalo as legitimate underdogs.

Bengals +110

I'm open to alternatives in this spot, as I'm aware the Bengals aren't the underdogs to which we're accustomed. However, around even money, Cincinnati is serviceable as part of a parlay.

Other options here include the Ravens (I like the Browns to win the game), Washington (the +170 moneyline price is too short for their win probability), the Falcons (ditto), the Texans (Davis Mills), the Lions (are they going to win a second straight?), the Jaguars (yikes), and the Bears (beating Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau - best of luck).

Joe Burrow missing practice on Wednesday - what would you expect from a guy whose finger wasn't facing the right direction Sunday? - has moved the Bengals to plus money. We'll assume he plays and that the Bengals should be favored.

Rams +115

You'd expect a long line of people to bet the Cardinals, but the first move in this game is off the key number of -3, down to Rams +2.5. I'm hoping to see that +3 return for the Rams but that first move is an indicator Los Angeles is live to get revenge in Arizona.

Here are how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.