NFL upset of the week: Bearing down on the Wilson-Carroll era

Why didn't we just take the Lions!? We should have taken the Saints - of course they'd shut out the Bucs!

While those weren't plays most had in their account, at least there were upset options available this past week. Our Week 15 selection for a live moneyline underdog had a second-half lead before it evaporated in the fourth quarter.

We'll enter the third-last week of the season focusing on a pair of teams with nothing left to play for.

The spot

For maybe the first time in NFL history, the team that played on Monday Night Football actually has the rest advantage heading into the following week. If the Bears wanted to, they could have flown to Seattle and watched the Seahawks play on Tuesday night.

Chicago was never in legitimate playoff contention, but they've shown up the last two weeks in Green Bay and against the Vikings. Turnover issues and some coaching missteps derailed their chances to win, but every game Justin Fields plays gives more hope for the Bears going forward.

The Seahawks may have believed they could steal the final NFC playoff spot, but that hope is now doused. It seems Russell Wilson is heading out the door, and the Pete Carroll era probably should come to its end as well. The Hawks are truly playing out the string this season. It's hard to understand why they should be considered a -280 favorite against anyone.

Bears offense vs. Seahawks defense

The numbers won't overwhelm you, but since Fields has returned as the starter, the Bears have 347 and 370 total yards against two playoff contenders. Fields has used his legs; David Montgomery has shown the combination of shiftiness and explosion that made him the Bears' tailback of the future.

The turnovers are still an issue but, against the Vikings, it was more of a case of fumble luck early that halted drives. A blocked field goal and a pair of back-against-the-wall fourth-down attempts short-circuited drives. The Bears only punted three times in a game they scored just three points in before the meaningless, sad touchdown with 0:00 on the clock.

The Seahawks' defense kept them in the game against the Rams, but that could be a case of familiarity with what a division rival does. Their pass defense is 24th in yards per attempt against (7.0) and is even worse in their last three games (7.6/ypa).

Perhaps more interestingly, despite having the Saints and Cardinals on their schedule, they've missed facing two of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league as Kyler Murray was injured and Taysom Hill was still watching Jameis Winston take snaps. Fields is the most dangerous runner that the Hawks will have faced at the quarterback position all season.

Bears defense vs. Seahawks offense

Panic rang out through Chicago when the Bears were forced to play without their starting secondary on Monday night. It didn't matter. The most replaceable position in the NFL was populated with replacement-level players and still functioned. You can find defensive backs on the street and survive if you have difference-makers in the front seven.

Akiem Hicks and his supporting cast should prevent Seattle from having success on the ground. It's become clear that Wilson has no interest in using his legs as a weapon. Meanwhile, the expectation is that the starters the Bears were missing will be back, and even if they're not, at least we know the replacements are capable. Especially if there's a cap on Wilson's arm strength, which seems to be the case.

Lastly, there's a fear Seattle's home-field advantage just doesn't hold up in the dwindling Wilson-Carroll era, as the Seahawks are 2-4 at home this season. There's a real chance they move to 2-5 after this week, and at better than 2:1 odds, that's a bet I'm willing to make.

Pick: Bears ML +220

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.