NFL Week 17 round-robin moneyline parlay: Choose your own adventure

We've kept celebrations to a dull roar because Week 16's 3-2 record closed with the one-time underdog - and eventual favorite - Miami Dolphins beating up on a dismantled Saints roster. As a result, whether you profited was dependent on when you read this article and what you were willing to wager.

Betting the NFL this December has required midweek adjustments. By now, you've learned the premise of our weekly one-unit long shot, which means you've possibly even started picking your own plays in this choose-your-own-adventure series. In the spirit of giving, I'll also provide you with an alternative option for each pick this week.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset like in Week 8, Week 10, Week 11, and Week 16, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you'll connect on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.

Who to play

Giants +215

Let's start with a premise play. It worked last week with Chicago over Seattle, and now we'll bet against the Bears. When two teams with nothing to play for meet and one of them is a touchdown favorite, we bet the underdog and take our chances.

It helps that the Bears weren't deemed good enough to stay within a touchdown last week, but now they're expected to win by more than one? Sure, the Giants might now be the worst team in an NFL that includes the Jaguars, but New York's defense is at least capable - it held the Eagles to three first-half points last week. In what should be a low-scoring game, we'll see if getting away from New York helps the Giants.

Alternative route: Lions (+250) over Seahawks

Texans +500

You know we like to include a big underdog in our weekly collection, and the basic handicap here is we're arguably getting a +500 payout on the team with the better starting quarterback.

The Texans won last week, finally landing on Rex Burkhead as their primary rusher with Royce Freeman providing the complementary touches, and now they'll get Brandin Cooks back. This will make life easier on Davis Mills, who we've successfully backed multiple times in the prop market this season and is finally getting positive media attention.

More importantly, we've seen how the 49ers' offense has stalled when Trey Lance plays. He's already seen more action than San Francisco might've expected, with Jimmy Garoppolo in and out of the lineup. Garoppolo appears to be out again, and while San Fran's supporting cast is much better than Houston's, the underdog will be live if Lance can't get his teammates the ball.

In a season where the Jaguars beat the Bills, the Buccaneers were shut out, the Lions beat the Cardinals, and the Texans defeated the Chargers, scoffing at any team winning is a mistake.

Alternative route: Falcons (+650) over Bills

Panthers +240

Here's another premise play. If a team is in a "must-win" game, it must not be very good. Sure, the Panthers are bad and may have very well quit on their coach, but at +240, this is a shot worth taking. Sam Darnold is back in as the starter, and while that's not exciting, it's an upgrade over Cam Newton.

Darnold did just enough back in September to give the Panthers a 26-7 win over the Saints, and New Orleans' quarterback situation has since deteriorated. Lost in the return of Taysom Hill is that the Saints still only scored nine points in his previous start. Both these teams have good defenses with bad quarterback situations, which makes this matchup feel much more even than the odds suggest.

Alternative route: Cardinals (+205) over Cowboys

Vikings +240

In my upset of the week, I wrote about the Vikings' path to success in their previous win over the Packers. I think they'll replicate that here, as Green Bay hasn't shown it's capable of stopping what Minnesota does best.

Alternative route: Broncos (+220) over Chargers

Steelers +160

All paths lead to this being Ben Roethlisberger's final start in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are playing in what the future Hall of Famer admits is likely his last home game. Maybe that emotional boost is enough for you. If not, perhaps Pittsburgh's 19 straight Monday night home wins are sufficient. Or maybe Mike Tomlin's impressive history as an underdog is what does it. Either way, with their playoff hopes still glimmering, the Steelers will step up against Baker Mayfield and Cleveland's run game to close out an enticing weekend for underdogs.

Here are how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.