NFL upset of the week: Saints overvalued in must-win clash vs. Falcons

It's supposed to all even out, and maybe it eventually will. It didn't last week, though. After winning with the Nick Foles-led Bears in Week 16 once Justin Fields and Andy Dalton were ruled out, we weren't so lucky with our second straight surprise at quarterback as Sean Mannion got the start for the Vikings in Week 17.

If you made your bet before Friday's news, you're now only up 4.1 units on our weekly underdog moneyline shot - with just one week left to profit on teams that few believe in.

The Spot

The Saints are in a must-win game, and the Falcons have "nothing to play for." We hear this type of not-so news every year at this time. While it's not untrue, no team is guaranteed a win just because it needs it.

When it comes to the Falcons, there's an old saying around the sportsbook: "They're just good enough to get you beat." At 7-9, they've won more than most probably expected, but they've had a tendency to melt down late and squander covers against good teams. The good news for their season finale - and maybe Matt Ryan's last game with Atlanta - is that the Falcons aren't playing a particularly good team.

Falcons' offense vs. Saints' defense

Atlanta won the Week 9 matchup on the strength of Ryan's arm. As we highlighted in our weekly piece before that game, Ryan has done the opposite of legendary nemesis Tom Brady against the Saints' defense: He's had success. It's not entirely clear why that is, but a 343-yard game on just 30 attempts and a career 22-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio against New Orleans are too obvious to ignore.

The case for the Saints always starts with a league-best run defense allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson combined for 18 carries and 23 yards in these teams' first matchup, but the Falcons built a 17-3 lead and hung on for the win anyway. It would be nice for Atlanta to do a little more work on the ground, but it's not as though the Falcons accumulated seven wins through a robust run game (despite some success running stretch plays off the left side with both Davis and Patterson at tailback).

Saints' offense vs. Falcons' defense

If the Saints win this game and the 49ers lose to the Rams, New Orleans will sneak into the final playoff spot. There isn't anyone in their right minds who has the Saints rated higher than the 49ers, but New Orleans is in this position thanks to its defense, not its offense.

Before a late touchdown to seal last week's win against the Panthers, the Saints had mustered just seven field goals over the last seven quarters in games Taysom Hill started. They won both games. Two of their four field goals on Sunday, meanwhile, came on drives of 4 yards and 23 yards.

The one player Atlanta needs to stop is, of course, Alvin Kamara. It took the Saints' dynamic running back six games to score against the Falcons, but he has touchdowns in each of his last three matchups against them. Still, he didn't top 104 combined yards in any of those three games. Given New Orleans' lack of alternatives and A.J. Terrell's ability to take away one side of the field, the Falcons would be thrilled to hold Kamara to 100 all-purpose yards here.

The pick

In the first matchup this season, Atlanta was +235 on the moneyline and an underdog of just under a touchdown in New Orleans. Now, with the Falcons at home, the line has dropped just two points, with the moneyline priced 55 cents lower. This line should be under a field goal, but we're getting great value thanks to the "must-win" narrative. Add in the fact that there hasn't been much to separate these teams this season, and we'll see if the Falcons can play spoiler to cap a successful first year under Arthur Smith. In fact, since I'm a fan of round numbers, we'll throw a little extra on it.

Bet: Falcons ML +180 (bet 1.1 units to win 1.9)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.