Wild Card Weekend betting preview: How to bet each NFC matchup

As mentioned in the AFC preview, the nice part of handicapping games in the playoffs is we don't have to worry about motivation or lookaheads. But in turn, with a season's worth of data available, these lines are tight as a drum - bet into their appropriate place within hours of the market opening.

With so few games to choose from, it's time to get creative to find value. Let's take a look at the NFC matchups and draw up a plan of attack before we dive into the player prop market later in the week.

Eagles @ Buccaneers (-8.5, 46)

The weather in Tampa being worse than Buffalo this weekend might be the biggest upset we'll see this round. Rain and wind are in the forecast for Raymond James Stadium, and how that might affect the handicap of this game is of critical importance.

The first matchup between the Eagles and Buccaneers came before the Philadelphia coaching staff found the team's offensive identity. Miles Sanders was the only running back to get a carry in the game, and he had just nine. One week later, they started to spread carries around - featuring Jalen Hurts, Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Jordan Howard - and it sparked the offense en route to a 7-2 finish.

The Bucs carried over their reputation as a staunch run defense from their Super Bowl season, giving up 60, 55, 76, -1, and 39 yards before the Week 6 matchup against Philadelphia. However, after the win over the Eagles, it hasn't been the same as they've allowed 113 yards per game. One of those included a 109-yard effort by Josh Allen, another mobile quarterback.

The Eagles have quietly turned around their defense as well, finishing in the top 10 against the pass. However, those numbers are built on the second half of the season, where the Eagles didn't face a quarterback anywhere near the quality of Tom Brady.

How to bet the game

In the AFC edition of this Wild Card Weekend preview, we pinpointed the Raiders +11.5 as a teaser leg of value, even after the market pounded the point spread into place. Now you have the second half of that, as Tampa is the best teaser leg on the board, as mentioned in this week's teaser article.

My numbers make the Eagles a 7.5-point underdog, so there's limited value here. With weather that may favor Philadelphia, I still trust the Bucs to get it done without laying over a touchdown.

Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (teaser leg)

49ers @ Cowboys (-3, 51)

The 49ers are fully capable of going on a run, and the fact they need to do so away from home shouldn't concern them, considering they went 6-2 on the road and have no discernible home-field advantage. Meanwhile, anytime a respectable team visited Dallas this season, they've left with a win.

The Cowboys' defense will have trouble with San Francisco's perimeter run game, which is designed to take the starch out of an opposing pass rush. At the same time, the Dallas secondary - which struggled with the Raiders' crossing routes - will have its hands full with the 49ers' targets inside the hash marks.

How to bet the game

As the shortest underdog on the board, the 49ers are obviously live to win. However, strictly speaking, with my numbers making the Cowboys just slightly less than a 3-point favorite, the line and moneyline opened at fair prices.

We are starting to see both creep up, and I'm hoping to take San Francisco at +3.5. Either way, I will start a moneyline rollover that will likely be more profitable than taking them to win the NFC at +1100.

Here are my moneyline projections for their most likely route to the Super Bowl:

Rolling over a parlay for that route adds up to +1900, assuming the worst-case opponents. With Kyle Shanahan's run game able to give Green Bay trouble, I would bet on San Francisco at Lambeau anyway.

Finally, if something happened to put the "wild" in Wild Card Weekend, or if the Rams knocked off the Bucs in the divisional round, the 49ers would get a matchup against a Los Angeles team they've beaten six straight times.

Pick: San Francisco +3, ML (+145)

Cardinals @ Rams (-4, 49.5)

The start of the season for the "Red Sea" provided nothing more than a red herring, as we saw their regular season end the same way head coach Kliff Kingsbury's seasons often do - with numerous losses.

I've been hard on the Cardinals all season, even before they lost to the Lions, beat-up Colts, and a Seahawks team playing out the string. The offense just doesn't have the big-play punch without DeAndre Hopkins.

After a three-game losing streak in high-profile games, the Rams were being sold by bettors. But a desperation drive by the 49ers was the only thing that prevented Los Angeles from ending the season with a six-game winning streak.

How to bet the game

I'm trying not to overcomplicate the wild-card round finale. We may only get one chance to fade Kingsbury, and I'll take my chances that Los Angeles' all-in approach to its roster will manifest in an impressive performance. That could send a message to the rest of the league that the veteran Rams might be ready to win it all, even if that's a red herring as well.

Pick: Rams -3.5 (-115 or better)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.