2023 Super Bowl odds: Who can improve their chances this offseason?

The Rams' victory in Super Bowl LVI makes it back-to-back seasons where a club that missed the playoffs the previous year added a Pro Bowl quarterback and proceeded to win a championship. Congratulations to those who bet on the Rams once the Matthew Stafford deal was made. As we look at the Super Bowl LVII market, even if we're expecting a similar situation to unfold again over the coming year, we don't have that information just yet.

Super Bowl LVII odds

If you're looking for teams that are a quarterback away from contention, the Buccaneers, Colts, and Panthers all have holes to fill while boasting an otherwise ready-made roster. The Broncos have a prominent target to potentially fill that gap, with a new head coach coming from the Packers.

The problem with backing a team like the Broncos is that you need two results to come through for the bet to win. First, they need to get the quarterback. This comes at an indeterminate probability, but one definitely shy of 100%.

Even in the most optimistic case that Aaron Rodgers is 50/50 to follow Nathaniel Hackett to Denver, you need to win that coin flip before you can think about winning a Super Bowl bet. With the Broncos' current odds of +2200, it's basically a +100 and +1150 parlay prior to a transaction that brings Rodgers in.

If you're more reasonable and think Rodgers landing in Denver is 25%, you're building an implied parlay that starts with Rodgers to the Broncos at +300. To get to their current odds of +2200, the second leg of that parlay is +575.

Why would you want the Broncos at +575 to win the Super Bowl in the AFC West with a quarterback who's failed repeatedly in the playoffs? Now consider that he may never even find his way to Colorado. The assumption that a team will get a new quarterback is pure speculation, which needs to be factored into the odds of any bet you make.

There are plenty of capable teams that already have a quarterback in place. The odds for clubs like the Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings aren't likely to see a drastic move. To even consider a bet that doesn't pay out until a year from now, you want a team listed at much longer odds.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5000

Let's do the math on the Steelers. They arguably have more talent than Denver but without the direct path to a high-level quarterback. Still, it makes sense for Pittsburgh to find an answer this offseason.

If we give Pittsburgh the same 50/50 odds to get a championship-quality signal-caller, then we're looking at a +100/+2500 parlay. It's easier to swallow the Steelers at 25-1 with a big upgrade at quarterback. Their stable organization is a reasonable landing spot for even the most troubled quarterback.

New York Giants +6600

The Giants can make a massive leap without bettors first requiring any drastic assumptions. They're massively upgrading their head coach following the disaster that was Joe Judge. Under Brian Daboll, Daniel Jones will be given his best chance at success, assuming the incumbent remains the starter. The additions made before last season - Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay - will hopefully have better luck in the health department, and Saquon Barkley will be two years removed from his ACL tear.

The biggest bump the Giants could get is from the draft, where they'll be picking twice inside the top 10. With a new general manager, it's possible two impact players will be added to the roster with the No. 5 and No. 7 picks.

It's also not out of the question that a high-profile quarterback makes his way to New York. If Jared Goff and two first-round picks can be dealt for Stafford, what could the Giants get with Jones and their draft capital?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.