NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for Feb. 18-20

The concept of "never again" is usually a bad idea in sports betting - adding a team to the No Bet List should either be your first or last resort.

Banishing a club from your card should be a last choice because every side has value at a certain price. In point spread-centric sports, it's a lot easier to keep teams off the No Bet List since those awful squads aren't required to win or even keep the game close. In moneyline-centric sports like hockey, it doesn't matter if a team is +800 if they never win.

However, the better usage of the No Bet List is as a first resort. You see something that makes you steer clear from a side as early as possible and dare them to prove you wrong by winning without letting them shrink your bankroll.

One silver lining about this tumultuous NHL season - during which lineups have become exponentially jumbled in ways we've never quite seen before - is that the clubs you'd want to steer clear of were obvious before the campaign started.

The Arizona Coyotes made it clear early they were not going to be competitive this season. The Montreal Canadiens didn't intend to be bad this year, but with the key veterans from their run to the Stanley Cup Final missing before the first puck even dropped, the signs for a down campaign were certainly there. In handicapping-speak, both sides' "priors" wouldn't be trustworthy.

Now that teams are crossing the 50-game mark on their schedules, and we've moved to a 60-40 split with weight towards this season's metrics, our ratings are catching up to how bad both squads are. The other 30 clubs are fair game, though, whether it's finding value with the Stars (+220) at the Avalanche or the Oilers (-220) as a better-than-fair favorite at home over the Ducks. Even the Coyotes have won two of their last five, and the Canadiens (+250) scored a dramatic upset win on Thursday.

The recipe

Before the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

Two months ago, I posted my 2021-22 campaign ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering the forced and longer-than-usual break the NHL had over the holidays, we'll use an even 50-50 split between those ratings and the pre-season priors via the regular-season point-total markets.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.