With or without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' future is complicated

Part II of "The Indecision" starring Aaron Rodgers is in full swing, with nothing less than the fate of the NFL offseason hinging on whatever it is the reigning two-time league MVP chooses to do next. Unlike last year's premiere, however, it appears that the sequel to "The Indecision" is in for a much shorter run.

Rodgers is expected to pick a lane "soon," according to ESPN's Dianna Russini, who later told "The Rich Eisen Show" that "soon" meant "the next week or so." Relations between Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers' front office improved in recent months - as Rodgers acknowledged this week on "The Pat McAfee Show" - and the Packers have also brought back former quarterbacks coach Tom Clements, an old Rodgers favorite. But because Rodgers is such a fickle weirdo, it's impossible to predict exactly what he'll do. His options, according to what Russini told Eisen, include returning to Green Bay, requesting a trade, or retirement.

Rodgers' contract status and the ability of the Packers or any potential trade partners to shoehorn him onto their salary cap necessitates a quicker decision than last year's. Rodgers knows this, which is why he's not going to wait until training camp to pull the trigger this time. Unlike last year, there are also a lot of complexities at work - both for Rodgers and the Packers. Let's unpack them.

What is Rodgers' contract status?

He has one year remaining on his deal after getting the Packers to agree last summer to void his contract after the 2022 season, perhaps to set the stage for a possible trade this season. Rodgers is scheduled to earn roughly $26.5 million in base salary, but his cap hit right now would be nearly $46.7 million, which is a bit of a problem.

Whoa. What? Why is it so high?

The Packers have restructured the deal Rodgers signed in 2018 twice to free up short-term cap space. A restructure involves converting base salary into a signing bonus to massage the cap implications in a given year by spreading the cap accounting across the remainder of the contract. It's essentially a bookkeeping trick that allows teams to borrow cap room for the present at the expense of the future. NFL teams can easily manipulate the cap by doing this, but doing too much of it eventually has consequences. That's where the Packers now find themselves.

In a break with precedent, the Packers did a bunch of restructures last year and even added void years to a batch of veteran contracts. It was an effort to keep the band together in a season in which the cap dropped by $16 million because of the pandemic's impact on league revenues in 2020. Those bills are starting to come due, as Packers cap expert Ken Ingalls recently explained:

How much are we talking?

The 2022 cap hasn't officially been determined, but the expectation is that it will increase by $25.7 million to $208.2 million - the maximum amount the league and the NFLPA agreed upon. Yet the Packers entered the offseason roughly $52.9 million above that number. They've since restructured the contracts of defensive lineman Kenny Clark and running back Aaron Jones to free up close to $14 million. But they've clearly still got a lot of work to do, and there's lots that still has to factor into their plans.

"Restructures on top of restructures" is Cheesehead for "You really don't want to see what this team's cap situation is going to look like in another year or two." The cap is expected to take off substantially beginning in 2023 and for several years to come, thanks to the league's television rights deals. But, again, the Packers are setting themselves up for some serious future cap obligations. Some tough decisions are in order in the weeks ahead, too.

Wait. You mentioned some things that still have to factor into their plans. Like what?

Oh, right. The Packers' draft class and practice squad allocations still have to be accounted for; it's not a huge commitment, but it ain't nothing, either: roughly $6 million. They also have decisions to make on a total of 23 pending free agents. They've got some cost control there with wideout Allen Lazard, who's a restricted free agent. But their list of unrestricted free agents includes tight end Robert Tonyan, inside linebacker De'Vondre Campell, cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Kevin King, and wideouts Equanimeous St. Brown, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and, yes, Davante Adams. None of those players are included in their cap overage.

Can't they franchise tag Adams?

They can, but the tag figure for wide receivers this year is slated to be $20.12 million - a number that would have to be added to their current $38.9 million cap deficit. Also, franchise tags can't be manipulated, which means that by tagging Adams the Packers must have that $20.12 million on their 2022 books in both cash owed to Adams and as a cap expense.

That's not all. Adams could choose to not sign his franchise tender and skip the offseason program and even training camp without consequence. And for as long as he doesn't sign the tender, the Packers can't trade him, either, should that be something they might want to do to get something back for him, rather than lose him in free agency for nothing but a future compensatory draft pick.

General manager Brian Gutekunst told reporters Wednesday that he doesn't like using the franchise tag and suggested the team could let Adams walk. Adams, of course, has long been Rodgers' favorite target, so it's easy to see how messy this might get.

Aren't there some deadlines on all this stuff, too?

Yep. Any tag designations must be made by March 8. And the Packers have until 4 p.m. ET on March 16 to get cap compliant. They've got a busy few weeks ahead of them.

They can always sign Adams to an extension, too, right?

Yep. An extension can be structured to keep Adams' 2022 cap hit low, too. But there's the added problem of getting Adams to agree to an extension, which could get pricey. And Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel on Wednesday reported that the two sides haven't talked since the end of the season. Make of that what you will, but keep in mind that the scouting combine is next week in Indianapolis, and the combine is when a lot of bargaining between teams and agents really heats up.

If nothing else, the franchise tag would buy the Packers time beyond the start of free agency to have an exclusive negotiating window with Adams, as Gutekunst also suggested to reporters this week.

What else can the Packers do?

The obvious moves include releasing edge rusher Za'Darius Smith and kicker Mason Crosby, which would produce close to $18 million in cap savings, per Over The Cap. Smith played in only two games in 2021 because of a back injury, but he had a restructure done last year, which means the Packers would still be on the hook for $12.38 million in dead money for him in 2022, which is basically the cap accounting for money he was already paid. Crosby's been a 15-year fixture in Green Bay, but he made only 73.5% of his field goals in 2021, a career low. It's possible he might retire, too.

Beyond that, the Packers could release players like wideout Randall Cobb ($6.78 million in cap savings), edge rusher Preston Smith ($12.47 million), right tackle Billy Turner ($3.4 million), defensive tackle Dean Lowry ($4.1 million), or safety Adrian Amos ($4.6 million). The roster implications of cutting any or all of these players are obvious, however.

Green Bay could also extend any of the contracts mentioned in the paragraph above, or restructure one or more of them. As Ingalls said on a recent podcast with Andy Herman, another restructure for left tackle David Bakhtiari could free up as much as $11 million in cap room. But because of a restructure done last year, Bakhtiari is already set to count $26.3 million against the cap in 2023 and more than $30 million in 2024, per Over The Cap's database. Would the Packers want to add to those future commitments considering Bakhtiari will be 31 in September and is coming off an ACL injury that limited him to 27 snaps in 2021?

What about extending Rodgers?

That's another possibility. Russini told Eisen that Rodgers would want to become the highest-paid player in the league with a new deal - somewhere in the range of $50 million per year. Ingalls noted that a possible four-year, $210-million deal with a $75-million signing bonus that brings Rodgers' 2022 base salary to the league's veteran minimum would still mean Rodgers is going to eat up approximately $35 million on the Packers' 2022 cap. So a lot of other cuts, extensions, and restructures are coming.

What about a Rodgers trade?

That, too, would likely require a new contract to be ironed out between Rodgers, the Packers, and any potential trade partner. Though a trade can be executed at any time, we're now well beyond the trade deadline for the 2021 league year, which means the deal won't become official until March 16, which means the Packers would have to carry Rodgers' full $46.7-million cap number into the new league year, when it has to be cap compliant.

Losing Rodgers would allow the Packers to turn to Jordan Love, but we all saw how that went when Love started a game last season.

Sheesh. It's all so complicated.

It is. But once Rodgers makes his decision, plenty of things ought to start falling into place, including the possibility of a ferocious bidding war among potential trade partners, which in turn will create a ripple effect of potential quarterback movement across the league.

But if Rodgers does decide to return to Green Bay, one thing seems certain: Future cap constraints mean it's going get harder and harder to keep the band together, which means the team's potential championship window likely won't stay open for much longer.

Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.