NHL weeknight betting guide: True moneylines for Feb. 28-Mar. 3

The NHL's loudest fan base almost found themselves quieted again on Saturday night. The Maple Leafs took a 7-2 lead into the second intermission in Detroit and looked to be cruising to victory as -200 favorites. For those smart enough to bet the over, there was no reason to watch the third period. For those who bet a side, things got interesting after the underdog Red Wings scored four goals in the first 5:21 of the third period.

Unless you're betting the total, it's never over until it's over in the NHL. Of course, if you bet the over on Sunday afternoon in the Oilers-Hurricanes game, you were infuriated by multiple goals getting called back because linesmen were letting offsides go during the action, only to have them disallowed after review.

That was a day after the Oilers won a game they had no business winning. Based on how they played against Florida, the Panthers would have won that game 84% of the time, according to Moneypuck.com.

Basically, if you bet on an Edmonton game this weekend, you had a wilder ride than Leafs fans in the third period on Saturday night. This is the unpredictability of the NHL. As bettors, the best we can do is put ourselves in the best position to be profitable long term by finding the smallest edges where available.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

The first half of this season was a mess as COVID-19 ripped up rosters on a nightly basis. Some games were postponed, while others provided skewed matchups that were nearly impossible to evaluate. With the calendar turning to March and testing policies relaxed, we can weight our ratings using 70% of this season's metrics with 30% weighted for preseason priors.

With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size that contains some tainted results.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.