2022 NFL Draft betting: Player position over/unders

It's the season of lying in the NFL.

Misinformation is the name of the game in the lead-up to the draft, presenting a particularly difficult challenge in an event based entirely on information.

With two weeks to go before the first round, teams are doing whatever they can to create an advantage, using the media to pump up the value of their pick in hopes of inducing a trade that will set them up for years to come. Since some pick trades will happen, it can be difficult to predict where players will be drafted.

Let's take a look at the draft position over/unders for individual players and try to determine where the valuable bets might be.

Like any bet, the goal is to beat the market before either a price adjustment or a line adjustment. Many of these draft position lines are created with a team in mind - a player may be considered sought-after by a franchise that's drafting at a particular spot.

Best bets

Aidan Hutchinson over 1.5 (+225)

Call it a conspiracy theory, but I'm not sold on the Jaguars taking Hutchinson. With the Detroit Lions picking at No. 2, the Jags might think the Michigan Wolverine is attractive enough to get the Lions to make a modest trade up, or maybe he'll entice another team to deal into the top spot. If that happens, this bet loses, but no other prospect has the same appeal, so the Jaguars have no reason to give us the impression they'll take anyone else.

You may want to fade Hutchinson as first pick overall by trying to hit on who will go No. 1, but there are too many other good candidates for Jacksonville. If the Jags do keep the pick, I've made the case for why they may still select an offensive lineman, but there's fire to go with the smoke that is Travon Walker's move up the board.

Meanwhile, Hutchinson at just -280 this close to the draft is a potential clue - the No. 1 pick is often a much heavier favorite at this point.

Kayvon Thibodeaux under 5.5 (+100)

As with the previous bet, we'd prefer to make draft bets that have two chances to win.

With two picks in the first seven selections, the Giants should have two primary targets - a pass-rusher and an offensive lineman. Who's available depends in part on what their MetLife Stadium roommates do, as the Jets hold the fourth pick.

This market suggests that the first three picks will be Hutchinson, Walker, and Ekwonu in some order. That would leave the Jets to decide between Evan Neal, Kayvon Thibodeaux, or a star cornerback. If they take Thibodeaux, this bet cashes. If they take either Ahmad Gardner or Derek Stingley, then the Giants can grab the Oregon pass-rusher - who at one point was suggested as the first overall pick - at No. 5.

With the Panthers expected to draft a quarterback sixth overall, Neal would still be free for the Giants at No. 7. On top of that, if the Lions or Texans go for a cornerback with their first pick, the Giants would be assured that they could get an offensive tackle with their next selection.

Garrett Wilson under 10.5 (-115)

There are two ways this wins: either the Falcons find Marcus Mariota someone to throw to besides Kyle Pitts at No. 8, or the Jets add a playmaker for Zach Wilson at No. 10.

Jordan Davis over 13.5 (-160)

When betting these props, remind yourself what teams desire in the modern NFL. A run-stuffing defensive tackle is something of a luxury that the Ravens would be happy to add to their defense with the 14th pick. However, Davis is unlikely to draw enough attention for anyone to trade in front of Baltimore. There are too many other good prospects at prime positions like pass-rusher, cornerback, offensive line, wide receiver, and quarterback for a team to reach on Davis.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.