NBA Eastern Conference playoff preview, best bets for every series

With the NBA playoffs starting Saturday, we've got you covered with previews of every series and our best bets from the available markets at theScore Bet and Barstool Sportsbook.

Here are the odds for each series in the Eastern Conference and how we're betting them:

No. 1 Heat (N/A) vs. No. 8 Cavaliers / Hawks

We won't go too deep into this series, mostly because we don't know who will face the Heat in the first round. And each potential opponent presents an entirely different stylistic approach for the East's top seed.

Should the Hawks hold serve Friday, as oddsmakers expect, they have the upside to make some noise a year after rallying to the Eastern Conference finals behind Trae Young's postseason breakout. The diminutive guard averaged 29.1 points and 10.4 assists through the first two rounds but was slowed by an injury in the semifinals, ultimately dashing Atlanta's hopes at an unlikely title run.

While injury played a factor in Young's decline, so did the Bucks' physical approach along the perimeter - a recipe the Heat are well equipped to follow should they draw the Hawks in the first round. Miami finished fourth in defensive rating (108.4) in the regular season, allowing the fewest field-goal attempts within five feet (24.3) and ranking second in opponent 3-point percentage (33.9%). Nothing comes easy against this group.

That stout interior defense will also come in handy against the Cavaliers, who are heavily reliant on a supersized lineup that overwhelmed teams during the regular season. There are two problems with that in this matchup: Jarrett Allen (finger) is a major question mark after missing 18 straight games, and Heat center Bam Adebayo is one of the best defensive bigs in the league.

Simply put, both Atlanta's and Cleveland's strengths are mitigated by this physical Miami defense, and neither has a great answer for Adebayo and Jimmy Butler on the other end. That's to say nothing of the Heat's myriad shooters, who helped the team lead the NBA in 3-point percentage (37.9%). The Heat aren't a perfect squad, but their floor is pretty dang high, which should make for a short series in Round 1.

Best bet: Under 5.5 games (TBD)

No. 2 Celtics (-140) vs. No. 7 Nets (+115)

This series is priced as the closest across the entire postseason in oddsmakers' minds, and it's the hardest one to project with any level of confidence. That's what happens when you pit two legitimate title contenders against one another in the first round.

The Celtics have been far and away the best team in the league by advanced metrics dating back to Jan. 23, when veteran guard Marcus Smart - the betting favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year - returned from a brief six-game hiatus. Since then, Boston has a league-best 28-7 record with the top offense rating (120.2) and defensive rating (104.8) in the NBA, outscoring opponents by an outlandish 15.5 points per 100 possessions. For context, the Grizzlies ranked second with a net rating of plus-8.1 over that stretch.

Yet Boston lost another DPOY favorite along the way when Robert Williams tore his meniscus in late March, poking a 237-pound hole right through the Celtics' top-ranked offense and defense over the past three months. There's a "very real" chance he returns in this series, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, and the Celtics still won four of seven games without him by an average of 24.8 points. But this is simply a different team when Williams - who ranks fourth in the NBA in win shares per minute - is on the floor.

The Nets also have their own injured star waiting in the wings, though this team is yet to prove its might with or without him. Ben Simmons (back) is targeting Game 4 for a potential return, according to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, and his elite passing ability and perimeter defense theoretically fit nicely into Brooklyn's current build. Yet it's fair to question what Simmons will bring in first on-court action since a Game 7 loss to the Hawks in last year's second round, when he attempted only four shots and was scapegoated for the 76ers' playoff collapse.

Without him, the Nets have the talent to win this series but with brutally small margins. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving combined to score 69 points on 67.7% shooting in Tuesday's play-in game against the Cavaliers, and their side still only won by seven. Brooklyn won 12 of 19 games since Durant's return on March 3 with a top-five net rating, yet only three of those wins came against teams currently in the playoff field.

This is ultimately Boston's series to lose, especially if Williams can make a triumphant return, but there's an easy case to be made that Durant's brilliance is enough to justify a plus-money bet on the Nets. The trickiest part of betting this series is knowing that the entire matchup could change as early as Game 4 if either team's ace in the hole makes a timely return. If you can stomach the juice, the safe play here is to bet on an entertaining (and lengthy) series between two juggernauts that I wouldn't want to bet against.

Best bet: Over 5.5 games (-186)

No. 3 Bucks (-1200) vs. No. 6 Bulls (+750)

The defending champion Bucks didn't secure the top seed in the East, but they certainly drew the easiest matchup against a Bulls team that posted the worst point differential of any team in the current playoff field and that simply hasn't looked right in months.

It wasn't all that long ago when Chicago owned the best record in the East (27-11) and a top-five net rating behind one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. Then came a pair of losses by a combined 68 points to the Nets and Warriors, which preceded a season-ending injury to prized offseason acquisition Lonzo Ball that sparked a downward spiral for the Bulls - even as other key rotation pieces returned.

DeMar DeRozan nearly saved the season with an MVP-level run in February, but the wheels have come off since the All-Star break. In that span, Chicago has been outscored by 7.1 points per 100 possessions - only the Trail Blazers (-21.3) and Thunder (-11.3) have been worse - and owns the second-lowest assist rate (54.7%) and fourth-lowest rebound rate (48.2%). Some of that is due to Ball's absence, but what happened to the collection of All-Star talent that lifted this team to such incredible heights earlier in the year?

There's been no such drop-off for the Bucks, who have the third-best record since the break (15-7) and are clearly built to succeed in the postseason (see: 2021). Giannis Antetokounmpo is an unstoppable force come playoff time, and the likes of Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton will harass the Bulls' remaining perimeter threats for the entirety of 48 minutes, if necessary.

Milwaukee won all four regular-season meetings in this series and was especially dominant in the final two meetings, beating Chicago by 28 points on March 22 and by 21 points on April 5. Very little has changed since then to convince me that the Bulls can steal even one game in this series without the Bucks hand-delivering it. And after last year's epic run, I don't expect the reigning champs to be gifting playoff wins anytime soon.

Best bet: Under 4.5 games (+250)

No. 4 76ers (-175) vs. No. 5 Raptors (+145)

At some point, the narrative flipped on these 76ers, who went from everyone's pick to win the East to an overhyped collection of talent without the direction to win it all. Did I miss the memo somewhere along the way?

It's not as if the early returns on the James Harden and Joel Embiid pairing have given us any real reason to panic. In fact, since acquiring Harden at the deadline, Philadelphia ranks in the top five in record (16-8) and net rating (plus-5.2), even as Harden struggles to find his shooting stroke. Instead, Embiid has picked up the slack, averaging 32.6 points and 12.8 rebounds in a late push for MVP consideration.

The biggest mistake for bettors handicapping this series is assuming the Sixers' talent stops after those two. Tyrese Maxey has emerged as a dynamic third option, averaging 18.7 points and shooting 48% from deep since Harden's arrival, while Tobias Harris is still a matchup problem for any team without a versatile big to defend him at all three levels. Those players will prove key should the Raptors try to swarm Embiid in the paint or double-team Harden on the drive, leaving open teammates in their wake.

That's a tricky strategy to pull off given how proficient Philly's shooters can be. Since Harden joined the team in late February, the 76ers rank sixth in 3-point percentage (38.5%) and first in free-throw percentage (83.6%) while ranking second in trips to the charity stripe. It poses an interesting challenge for Toronto's aggressive perimeter defense, which has allowed the fourth-fewest free throws per game (20.9) since the break while still ranking sixth in steals (8.5) and fifth in defensive rating (110.2).

Ultimately, this series will come down to the Raptors' ability to contend with Embiid inside without having a bona fide rim-protector to do so. Precious Achiuwa dazzled late in the year, and Pascal Siakam has shown flashes in his career as a versatile defender, but neither can handle Embiid one-on-one - as if anyone can. And even if Harden doesn't regain his stroke in this series, his elite vision will force an occasionally overzealous Toronto defense to atone for its lapses in coverage.

The Raptors have enough playmakers offensively - all five starters average at least 15 points per game - to force the Sixers' hand on the other end, too. And with defensive whiz Matisse Thybulle ineligible to play road games in Toronto, that's an even bigger advantage at home. Still, Philly is the more talented team on paper with clearer mismatches to attack and a better resume of production leading into the postseason. What's not to like about that?

Best bet: 76ers (-175)

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].