NBA Western Conference playoff preview, best bets for every series

The NBA playoffs begin Saturday and we've got you covered with previews of every series and our best bets from the available markets at theScore Bet and Barstool Sportsbook.

Here are the odds for each series in the Western Conference and how we're betting them:

No. 1 Suns (N/A) vs. No. 8 Clippers / Pelicans

A year ago, the Suns were a championship-caliber squad hiding in plain sight, and the market was strangely dismissive of their elite upside - even pricing them as underdogs to win their first-round series against the Lakers. That won't be the case this time around after one of the most impressive regular seasons we've ever seen.

Phoenix finished the season 64-18, which ranks among the 25 best marks in NBA history. Perhaps the most impressive part was maintaining that pace without star point guard Chris Paul, who led the team in win shares (9.4) despite missing 17 games, including 15 straight with a fractured thumb. Incredibly, the Suns went 11-4 during his hiatus before winning five of Paul's final seven starts - in which he averaged 13.1 points, 11.9 assists, and 1.9 steals on 55.1% shooting.

While last year's group relied on unmatched continuity to key its title run, this year's team reinvented itself on the fly without Paul - and will likely be even more dangerous because of it. Devin Booker made legitimate noise as an MVP candidate with his scorching stat line to close the season. Deandre Ayton enjoyed the best month of his career in March. Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson both starred in low-usage roles but each pitched in multiple 20-plus point games throughout the year.

All told, this team looks every bit like the title contender it was a year ago, but with more experience and a hunger that exists only in those who come as close as Phoenix did to victory without tasting it. The Clippers and Pelicans both showed flashes late in the year, but they're the only teams remaining in the West with a below-average net rating, and neither match up well with the Suns. This series could get ugly in a hurry.

Best bet: Under 4.5 games (TBD)

No. 2 Grizzlies (-365) vs. No. 7 Timberwolves (+290)

It's a shame these two matched up in the first round, because both squads have "spoiler" potential after surprising regular-season runs to reach this stage.

The Grizzlies were easily the biggest success story of the season, and their advanced stats suggest legitimate title upside. Memphis finished with the NBA's second-best record (56-26) and fifth-best net rating (plus-5.3), and it joined the Suns as the only team with a top-six offense and defense during the regular season.

Most impressively, this team boasted a 20-5 record without Ja Morant, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per 100 possessions with the dark-horse MVP candidate on the bench. That shouldn't discredit Morant's spectacular third season - he ranked ninth in scoring (27.4 PPG) and led the NBA in points in the paint (16.8) - but rather emphasize how impressive guys like Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, and Dillon Brooks were in preserving Memphis' epic campaign.

However, don't overlook the unlikely run by these Timberwolves, who are in the postseason for the first time since 2017-18 and seeking their first playoff series win since Kevin Garnett led them to the conference finals in his MVP season in 2004. This team doesn't have a perennial All-NBA force, but it's arguably more balanced with three elite scorers - Karl-Anthony Towns (24.6 PPG), Anthony Edwards (21.3), and D'Angelo Russell (18.1) - and a host of scrappy role players that comprise one of the NBA's deepest rotations.

What makes this Timberwolves team so dangerous is its aggressive approach on both ends. Minnesota led the league in 3-point attempts (41.3) and makes (14.8) per game during the regular season and led the NBA in possessions per 48 minutes (101.5), which is a terrifying combination in its own right. Yet Minnesota also creates extra possessions with its tenacious defense, ranking first in points off turnovers (19.8), third in steals (8.8), and third in deflections (16.7) per contest.

The T-Wolves have ratcheted up the intensity since the All-Star break, ranking fourth in net rating (plus-5.7) and third in offensive rating (119.4) while upping their pace (103.1), steals (9.1), and deflections (18.0), to boot. This is an incredibly frustrating team to play when it's firing on all cylinders, especially when Minnesota's shooters are connecting from deep.

The Grizzlies' defense was stout against shooters late in the season, while the Timberwolves have the size to keep Memphis from dominating down low. The biggest X-factor here is Morant's health. I'm skeptical of his ability to swing this series after playing once since March 20, but his supporting cast makes it tough to pick against the hosts outright. I'll split the difference and bet on a lengthy series, with a small sprinkle on Minnesota's juicy outright price.

Best bet: Over 5.5 games (-143)

No. 3 Warriors (-250) vs. No. 6 Nuggets (+200)

There was a time this season when the Warriors looked like the NBA's best team. Stephen Curry was breaking out of the worst shooting slump of his career; Draymond Green was the front-runner for DPOY; and Klay Thompson was nearing his return from a two-year absence with myriad lower-body injuries.

Then Green was sidelined with a calf injury that turned into a back injury. Then Curry went down, too. Since then, this team simply hasn't been the same. The Warriors limped to a 6-7 record over their final 13 games, which coincided with Curry's absence. While the two-time MVP is trending toward playing in Game 1, it's still an open question how he (and this team) will look in his return.

It's not only about Curry, either. Over the first 39 games of the season ahead of Green's lengthy stint injured, the Warriors led the league in net rating (plus-8.9) and defensive rating (101.9) - the latter by a country mile. Since then, Golden State has been merely average overall and a borderline top-10 defense while ranking below average on offense, even with Green returning in mid-March. This team's star trio has played the entirety of two games together this season; how long until we can expect elite returns?

There's also the obvious question on the other side: how do you stop Nikola Jokic, who's the overwhelming favorite to win his second consecutive MVP award? The Nuggets led the league in true shooting (59%) thanks almost entirely to their unstoppable 7-footer, who leads the NBA in seemingly every advanced stat and has somehow posted career highs in shooting percentage (58.3%), assist rate (42.6%), rebound rate (23%), and usage rate (31.9%) after one of the best offensive displays we've ever seen a year ago.

He'll surely test all three of the Warriors' stars with the way he bends opposing defenses when operating as a facilitator and scorer out of the post. Green has long been Golden State's secret weapon against opposing bigs, but with his lackluster play lately, he's a tough bet to slow Jokic one-on-one. And if the Warriors can't chase Jokic from the post, he'll gladly run point and force Curry and Thompson to chase shooters around the perimeter - which is a ghastly sight given both players' re-injury risk.

If the Dubs can execute a plan defensively to halt Jokic's magic, there won't be much left for a Nuggets squad that has all but given up hope on a return for Jamal Murray (knee) or Michael Porter (back). In essence, this is Jokic or bust. That hasn't worked in previous seasons, but the Serbian sensation is also playing the best basketball of his life to close the season, averaging 32.2 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 7.7 assists on a jaw-dropping 62.5% from the field over his last 18 games to guide Denver to a 11-7 record.

There's enough concern with the Jokic matchup to give me pause on an easy Golden State victory, which is how the market views this series. When you consider all the injury concerns on the Warriors' side, too, it's hard to have much confidence in such a short price. I'm tempted to take a shot on the moneyline, but the safer play is to grab the extra 1.5 games on the 'dogs and dare the Warriors to return to their early-season form - and to keep Jokic from finally stamping his signature playoff moment.

Best bet: Nuggets +1.5 games (-114)

No. 4 Mavericks (+240) vs. No. 5 Jazz (-300)

In many ways, this series was decided with 2:24 left in the Mavericks' regular-season finale against the Spurs, with Dallas holding an 18-point lead and hopes of securing the No. 3 seed in the West. Instead, it settled for the No. 4 seed and braced for much worse when superstar Luka Doncic hobbled off the court with what was later diagnosed as a strained left calf.

The injury heard 'round the world is clearly the focal point of this series, not only because of Doncic's brilliance as a player but also his team's unique dependance on him. The 23-year-old led the league in usage rate (37.4%) and paced the Mavericks in points (28.4), assists (8.7), and rebounds (9.1) - nearly doubling his next-closest teammate in the first two stats while leading all NBA guards in the third.

We have some evidence of how this team might respond without Doncic, who missed 17 games during the regular season, and spoiler alert: it's not pretty. Dallas went 8-9 in those 17 games and notched seven of eight wins against non-playoff teams. One of those nine losses came against the Jazz, who surrendered 27 points to Kristaps Porzingis but held his teammates to a combined 89 points on 42.3% shooting.

Porzingis is gone, and Doncic's status is murky at best. He's likely out for Game 1 of this series, at least, and is a tough bet to return to form by Game 2, which would be eight days after suffering an injury with a usual recovery timeline of at least two weeks. That's exacerbated for a player like Doncic, who thrives on changing speeds and creating space with footwork and acceleration. Incredible players do incredible things in the postseason, but this is a tall task even for one of the NBA's biggest stars.

And the Jazz aren't a pushover here, either. This group ranked third in net rating (plus-6.2) during the regular season and still features one of the best star pairings in the league in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert - one an elite shot-creator and facilitator, the other an all-world defender and bullying force inside. Dallas is especially vulnerable in the paint after trading Porzingis, and its best shot of wearing down Mitchell over a seven-game series is forcing him to contend with Doncic on the other end.

If the Mavericks manage to pull off a stunning Game 1 victory, it bodes well for their ability to rally around their hobbled star and provide enough support in subsequent contests to pull off the series win. If they can't, it'll put even more pressure on Doncic to carry his team without the physical capacity to do so. I'll gladly bet on the latter scenario, which feels by far the most likely at this point.

Best bet: Jazz to win Game 1 and win series (-118)

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].