Hurricanes-Bruins series preview: Betting by the numbers
Almost two years ago in the bubble, the Hurricanes had the Bruins on the ropes, but weren't able to score enough to send Boston home. Last year, Carolina found itself in a second-round matchup with the Lightning, but couldn't solve Andrei Vasilevskiy to force a Game 7. Will the issue crop up again in a rematch with the Bruins?
When we're looking for a valuable bet in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the first question is: "What have you done for me lately?"
The Bruins are my highest-rated team after the All-Star break, a cohort that's particularly important (more details below). Only four other playoff teams improved in the second half over their season-long rating. The Hurricanes were one of them, but not to Boston's degree.
If the Canes are carrying baggage from the last two postseasons, they can't be thrilled to face a team that improved steadily the way Boston did. The Bruins are a wild-card team in more ways than one - they won 26 games at home and 25 on the road this season.
Series Odds
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | -115 | -115 | CAR -1.5 (+180) |
| Bruins | -105 | -105 | BOS -1.5 (+160) |
Projected prices
Hopefully you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season, and to find what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength metrics like expected goals, high-danger chance rates, and high-danger conversion rates - both for and against - to try to predict which team will play better playoff hockey.
Due to special circumstances during the season, which included some tainted results pre-All-Star break when COVID-19 ravaged lineups, we're weighing the second half more than we normally would. Lastly, we'll make use of a formula to factor in home ice that includes each team's moneyline win percentage with the league average win probability differential.
True moneylines
The true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet.
The following is the expected price for each side when the games are played in Carolina (Game 1, 2, 5, and 7), and in Boston (Game 3, 4, and 6).
| HURRICANES | BRUINS | |
|---|---|---|
| True ML in Carolina | -101 | +101 |
| True ML In Boston | +166 | -166 |
| Series Price | +159 | -159 |
Price to bet
In the regular season, we'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog, and a 1% edge for the favorite. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario:
| GAME 1/2/5/7 | GAME 3/4/6 | SERIES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | +112 | +198 | +188 |
| Bruins | +109 | -159 | -152 |
The identical game and series prices imply a 50-50 coin flip of a matchup, and should this go to a seventh game in Carolina, maybe that's the case. However, the Bruins' ability to play on the road, along with a hostile atmosphere in Boston, suggests going the distance might be tough for the Hurricanes.
Derivative market
| Series result | Probability / Converted Odds |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes 4-0 | 3.6% / +2709 |
| Hurricanes 4-1 | 9.5% / +953 |
| Hurricanes 4-2 | 10.5% / +855 |
| Hurricanes 4-3 | 15.2% / +560 |
| Bruins 4-0 | 9.7% / +936 |
| Bruins 4-1 | 15.5% / +546 |
| Bruins 4-2 | 21.2% / +372 |
| Bruins 4-3 | 15% / +567 |
Unless you get extremely fortunate with the inevitable overtime games that are going to come in any matchup between close teams, a sweep is hard to pull off. The Bruins are only 9.7% likely to put the brooms to Carolina, but at 12-1, there's value if you want to shoot your shot. Slightly more conservatively, the Bruins to win 4-1 at +650 has some value as well.
Best bet
The Bruins got clipped by the Islanders last year, but the pieces are all still there. The 18 skaters will need to take the pressure off the Bruins' inexperience in net. They've shown they can, allowing only 8.89 even-strength high-danger chances per 60 minutes since the All-Star break. That will make life easier for either Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark.
Carolina's lack of size on the defensive end is going to be tested to keep Frederik Andersen clean, and the longer the series goes, the more it moves in Boston's favor.
There's not much in the way of value in the first game, but since the Bruins start on the road, grabbing that big price on a sweep is all I'll do for Game 1. A win in Raleigh puts everything in play. On the back end of the series, if the Bruins have a 3-2 lead heading home for Game 6, it's curtains for Carolina.
Pick: Bruins to win series (-105 or better)
Bruins -1.5 (+160 or better)
Bruins sweep (+1200 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.