Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: How to find in-series value

Aside from a botched clearing attempt by Oilers goaltender Mike Smith, there wasn't much drama on Day 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, with three of the first four games ending in definitive victories.

After each game, the betting markets adjust their prices for each team to win. This can often provide an opportunity for bettors, either in recognizing that one team may be overmatched or that there may be an overreaction to previous results.

We'll evaluate how each team played on Monday, using five-on-five metrics like expected goals, high-danger chances, and high-danger chance goals. This removes potential outliers like power-play goals, and soft goals allowed - two things that are hard to predict on a game-to-game basis. Even-strength dominance is much more predictive of future success.

Game 1: Bruins 1, Hurricanes 5

Hurricanes goaltender Antti Raanta, getting the start due to an injury to Frederik Andersen, looked shaky in the first period, often struggling to contain loose pucks in and around his crease. The normally opportunistic Bruins couldn't convert, and the game remained scoreless for 36-plus minutes.

The Bruins had more expected goals in each of the three periods. However, it was Carolina that eventually broke through. The Bruins are expected to give Jeremy Swayman a shot in net for Game 2 after Linus Ullmark gave up three goals from non-high-danger areas.

With the expectation that we'll see more urgency from the Bruins, better conversion around the net, and their top line (a collective minus-9 on Monday) to be more engaged, Boston is worth grabbing at a juicy price to eventually take the series.

Pick: Bruins to win series (+165)

Game 1: Lightning 0, Maple Leafs 5

Scotiabank Arena was rocking Monday night as '80s pop-rock rang through the rafters more often than even the most ardent Maple Leafs fan could have expected - "expectation" being the operative word. As much as the 5-0 win felt like a party, on the relatively few occasions when the game was played at even strength (the fewest five-on-five time of Monday's four games), it was played evenly from an even-strength expected goal share standpoint.

Already on record as being on Toronto to win a long series, I won't get overexcited about the scoreboard after one game. A -220 price tag on the Leafs is an overreaction to them holding serve once at home, so it's Lightning or nothing here. With a good position on the Leafs and a win already in pocket, I'll opt for the latter.

Pick: Pass

Game 1: Blues 4, Wild 0

If you picture your favorite type of high-danger scoring chance - maybe a breakaway, a one-timer in the slot, a goal-mouth rebound - it's hard to believe that the Wild went 0-for-12 in those situations, while the Blues converted one of their four.

David Perron's hat trick came from two power-plays and a power play that expired two seconds earlier. Meanwhile, the Wild were 0-for-6 on the man advantage at home. While the Blues had the more efficient power play in the regular season, going 2-for-6 (almost 3-for-6) is certainly an outlier.

Priced at +155 but having lost home-ice advantage already, the Wild aren't worth an in-series play. A moneyline bet on Minnesota (-120) in Game 2 is a better use of our capital.

Pick: Pass

Game 1: Kings 4, Oilers 3

The Kings got the best of the Oilers at even strength, but this is less about expecting that to continue and more about believing the Oilers will improve in Game 2. Oddsmakers have priced their moneyline (-195) identically to where it was Monday, so the belief in the market is for a better game from Edmonton.

It's easy to blame Smith for his foolish breakout pass, but the reality is that the Oilers need to play better in front of him if they want to win this series.

But if the Oilers are who we think they are, the pick'em series price will be a bargain by the time all is said and done.

Pick: Oilers to win series (-115)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.