Rangers-Lightning series preview: Betting by the numbers
There seemingly always needs to be an underdog story during the run to the Cup, and the New York Rangers' trip to the Eastern Conference Final fits the bill this year. However, it's rare for the surprise team in the Stanley Cup semifinals to have home-ice advantage, let alone be hosting the two-time defending champions.
That isn't the only factor throwing the series handicap for a loop. The Lightning are coming off an excessive amount of rest after sweeping the Panthers. Meanwhile, it's an under-48-hours turnaround for the Rangers after winning their do-or-die Game 7 in Carolina.
For those of us who build and maintain ratings off of team performance, the biggest wrench in the valuation of this matchup is that New York got crushed in the predictive metrics for the last two series ... and won anyway.
If the Rangers had a merely average goaltender, they'd be rated at 10% below average based on (among other things) getting drubbed 221-122 in high-danger chances by the Penguins and Hurricanes in 14 playoff games. Surviving that discrepancy is a wild outlier, though winning their second-round series was more understandable with Igor Shesterkin posting plus-11.23 goals saved above expectation (GSAx).
That's the difference an awesome goaltender can make, especially when the opponent is running out netminders with limited resumes like Casey DeSmith, Louis Domingue, Tristan Jarry, Antti Raanta, and Pyotr Kochetkov.
Barring an incredibly unfortunate scenario, the Rangers will now see a mirror image of Shesterkin in the Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy. The 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner boasted a plus-10.29 GSAx in four games against the Panthers.
From a predictive standpoint, the Rangers don't have the advantage in net this time around. Finding a rating for the Rangers depends on how heavily you're willing to weight their recent even-strength play.
Series odds
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | +105 | +150 | +1.5 (-125) |
| Lightning | -130 | -175 | -1.5 (+105) |
Projected prices
Hopefully, you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season and what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength metrics like expected goals and high-danger chance rates, as well as high-danger conversion rates (for and against), to try to predict who'll play better in the postseason.
True moneylines
The true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet.
The following is the expected price for each side when the contests are played in Tampa Bay (Games 1, 2, 5, and 7) and New York (Games 3, 4, and 6).
| LIGHTNING | RANGERS | |
|---|---|---|
| True ML in Tampa Bay | -220 | +220 |
| True ML in New York | -126 | +126 |
| True series price | -280 | +280 |
Price to bet
We'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog and a 1% edge for the favorite in the regular season. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario:
| GAME 1/2/5/7 | GAME 3/4/6 | SERIES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | +148 | +266 | +348 |
| Lightning | -121 | -210 | -266 |
We're close to a bet on the Lightning in Game 1, and the series numbers suggest a play on the Lightning, but we'll look into a more valuable way to back Tampa.
Derivative series market
The following is the probability for each of the eight possible series results, along with a fair price for an exact result bet.
| Series result | Probability/Converted odds |
|---|---|
| Lightning 4-0 | 14.7%/+582 |
| Lightning 4-1 | 20.4%/+389 |
| Lightning 4-2 | 24%/+317 |
| Lightning 4-3 | 14.6%/+585 |
| Rangers 4-0 | 1.9%/+5114 |
| Rangers 4-1 | 5.9%/+1605 |
| Rangers 4-2 | 7%/+1338 |
| Rangers 4-3 | 11.6%/+763 |
Simply put, there's value on any series result that sees Tampa winning in six games or fewer. Cumulatively, that translates to a 59% chance that the Lightning win before a Game 7.
Best bets
The market is offering the Lightning -1.5 games at plus money, and I'll take that. I don't think Tampa will need a seventh game to win this series, and I wouldn't want to rely on any team to win on the road at -175 regardless.
From a game-to-game standpoint, although it may sound simplistic given the goaltenders, I'll be looking to bet the under whenever I can get under 5.5 goals at -120 or better.
The Lightning don't have the firepower and depth they once did. They know that if they're going to make an almost-unheard-of three straight Cup Final appearances, they need to play close-to-the-vest, low-event games. During their last two championship runs, in the last two postseason series, the under is 15-8 in Lightning games.
This won't be as entertaining as the Western Conference Final, but if Tampa can win low-scoring games, we'll enjoy it just as much.
Pick: Lightning -1.5 games (+105 or better)
Game 1: Under 5.5 (-110 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.