Stanley Cup Final preview: Betting by the numbers
The Stanley Cup Playoffs have produced something of a dream matchup in the final. Two-time defending champions the Tampa Bay Lightning - looking for the first three-peat in the NHL since 1982 - will take on a Colorado Avalanche team that's been the Cup favorite for the last two seasons.
The Avalanche have taken advantage of a stellar power play, converting 31.1% of the time, but now face a stifling Tampa team that's killed 82.5% of its penalties. The Lightning are a more sustainable 22.6% with the man advantage. Meanwhile, opponents scored on 24.3% of their power plays against Colorado.
Even-strength play (2022 playoffs)
| TEAM | xGF | xGA | HDCF | HDCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | 44.59 | 36.06 | 192 | 145 |
| Avalanche | 39.96 | 28.32 | 148 | 125 |
Both teams have seen almost 20 high-danger chances (HDC) in their games, with each building a significant advantage in expected goals share. Colorado outclassed its first two opponents (Nashville, St. Louis) and the Lightning dominated the Rangers at even strength.
When it comes to converting their opportunities, the Avalanche have been just slightly below expectation, scoring on 11.7% of their high-danger chances at five-on-five. Their goaltending duo of Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz has been league average, stopping just shy of 87% of opponents' high-danger chances.
Meanwhile, the Lightning converted just 8% of their five-on-five high-danger chances against Jack Campbell, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Igor Shesterkin. Thankfully for Tampa Bay, Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed just 5.3% of opponents' chances.
Series odds
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | +140 | +145 | +1.5 (-140) |
| Avalanche | -165 | -175 | -1.5 (+115) |
The Avalanche get the nod as the favorites, in keeping with their rating by the market coming into the playoffs. A bet on Colorado implies that you think it wins this series more often than 63.6% of the time.
Projected prices
Hopefully, you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season and what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we've continued to use even-strength metrics like expected goals and high-danger chance rates, as well as high-danger conversion rates (for and against), to try to predict who'll play better in the postseason.
True moneylines
The true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet.
The following is the expected price for each side when the contests are played in Colorado (Games 1, 2, 5, and 7) and Tampa Bay (Games 3, 4, and 6).
| AVALANCHE | LIGHTNING | |
|---|---|---|
| True ML in Colorado | -115 | +115 |
| True ML in Tampa Bay | +125 | -125 |
| True series price | -104 | +104 |
My rating system does not like that the Avalanche fell behind the Oilers in five-on-five HDC at 48-41 with a sub-50% share of expected goals. Meanwhile, the Lightning's rating is boosted by their 16.45-9.97 advantage in expected goals and 86-42 HDC dominance over the Rangers with both teams at full strength. The Avalanche are penalized for having an easier route and thus fall below Tampa in overall rating.
Price to bet
We'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog and a 1% edge for the favorite in the regular season. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario:
| GAME 1/2/5/7 | GAME 3/4/6 | SERIES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | -110 | +148 | +122 |
| Lightning | +135 | -120 | +100 |
Since the numbers indicate the Lightning should be favored on neutral ice and the odds don't reflect that, it suggests the Lightning will be a valuable bet on a game-to-game basis and overall for a series that looks like a coin flip on paper.
Derivative series market
The following is the probability for each of the eight possible series results, along with a fair price for an exact result bet.
| Series result | Probability/Converted odds |
|---|---|
| Avalanche 4-0 | 5.6%/+1679 |
| Avalanche 4-1 | 12.8%/+683 |
| Avalanche 4-2 | 13.9%/+621 |
| Avalanche 4-3 | 16.8%/+497 |
| Lightning 4-0 | 6.7%/+1390 |
| Lightning 4-1 | 12.2%/+722 |
| Lightning 4-2 | 17.5%/+471 |
| Lightning 4-3 | 14.6%/+585 |
There's some value on the Lightning to win unexpectedly quickly, but unlike the Avalanche and Oilers, Tampa Bay doesn't play a high-variance style that leads to a short series. The Bolts often take some time to work into a matchup.
Best bets
The numbers-assisted narrative that didn't give the Rangers much of a chance against the Lightning asked, "How will they do against high-level goaltending?"
The same question should be asked of the Avalanche.
Vasilevskiy struggled early in the Eastern Conference Final, but when he found his usual form - with 3.61 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in the final four games - the Rangers couldn't score during five-on-five play.
The Avalanche are 11-1 in games against the likes of David Rittich (minus-3.76 GSAx), Connor Ingram (minus-1.19 GSAx), Ville Husso (minus-5.13 GSAx), and Mike Smith (minus-6.42 GSAx vs. Colorado). The best goaltending they've faced in their run to Stanley Cup Final was the two-plus games against Jordan Binnington (plus-1.73 GSAx), who was injured with the Blues up 1-0 in Game 3 when the series was tied.
I question the production of Nathan MacKinnon and the Avs' top line in this series. It'll be facing Anthony Cirelli and his shutdown line that's stymied star snipers on the Maple Leafs, Panthers, and Rangers. Also, barring an injury, Colorado shouldn't get the same number of soft goals it accumulated in a sweep of the Predators, late in the series with the Blues, and from start to finish against the Oilers.
With a position on Cale Makar to win the Conn Smythe already, we'll use the numbers that suggest an edge toward a tight series - not to necessarily bet on the Lightning to make history, but for them to make a strong run at doing so.
Pick: Lightning +1.5 games (-150)
Over 5.5 total games (-180)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.