NFL MVP odds: Jackson, Hurts among biggest risers as season nears

A lot has happened since we broke down the opening odds of who will win the 2022 NFL MVP award back in February. The receiver market exploded and precipitated a flurry of moves for star wideouts; the greatest player of all time retired, then promptly unretired weeks later; and the bidding war for one maligned star sparked a QB carousel across the league.

We've seen the effects of all of that in the MVP market. In some cases, it propelled former long shots into the contender circle with just two months to go before the season starts. Here are the updated NFL MVP odds at Barstool Sportsbook as of Monday, as well as three players who have seen the biggest climbs since February:

Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (+800)

Going from retirement to the starting quarterback of the NFC favorites is a surefire way to boost your MVP stock. That's been the timeline for Brady, who was the runner-up in last year's race and already has three MVP trophies on his mantle.

Even at age 44, he seemed impervious to the effects of aging, tossing a career-high 5,316 yards along with 43 touchdowns for the Buccaneers in 2021 - both of which led the league. He also finished second in QBR (68.1) behind MVP winner Aaron Rodgers (69.1) and was the MVP favorite until the season's final few weeks.

There's little reason to doubt that he can do it again at age 45, especially if star wideout Chris Godwin is ready for Week 1. This number has tightened over the summer and could be even shorter by the first week of the season.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (+1800)

We're just three years removed from Jackson's electric MVP season in 2019, when he threw for 3,127 yards and 36 touchdowns while adding a ridiculous 1,206 yards and seven scores on the ground. Yet it feels like he's the forgotten man in this loaded MVP race.

The betting market is starting to catch up, playing this number down from 25-1 at open to its current price of 18-1. It certainly doesn't hurt that Jackson is mired in a contract dispute with the Ravens, which seems to have motivated him if his recent social media activity is any indication.

He won't have top target Marquise Brown at his disposal this year, but the Baltimore QB appears to be in the best shape of his career following an injury-plagued 2021 campaign, which could be driving some of the hype in the MVP market. With free agency looming for Jackson, this could be another breakout season for the dual-threat superstar.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (+3300)

Nobody has seen their stock rise more than Hurts. He was dealing as a 50-1 long shot in February but has seen his price slashed to 33-1 as of Monday. At this rate, I'd be stunned if it doesn't reach 25-1 by Week 1.

That's how much smoke there is around the Eagles quarterback, who is among the most bet players to win MVP at various shops around the market ahead of his third season and second as a full-time starter. Some of that is because of the growth expected from the former Alabama star. But this entire Philly offense should also make strides in Year 2 under head coach Nick Sirianni - especially after adding former Titans receiver A.J. Brown in April.

The downside is obvious. Hurts owns a 9-10 record as a starter with a career 59% completion rate, but we've previously seen "project" QBs net massive rewards for bettors. Jackson shook off concerns about his arm en route to an MVP season in 2019, and current favorite Josh Allen nearly did the same as a 66-1 long shot in 2020. Don't be surprised to see bettors continue to bank on a similar trajectory for Hurts.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].