NFL division betting: Pass or play in the AFC?

It's officially Week 1 of the NFL season, and we've covered a lot of ground on the various futures markets for the coming year. We pointed out a handful of win totals to bet on, even though that market was picked over during the summer. The same can be said for the divisional championship markets (find the NFC here). With just four teams to choose from, we'll add a column to the oddsboard - including the implied win probability (IWP) that the odds suggest.

Using the context of the market's expectation for each team after months of available betting at relatively high limits, let's break down how each division's odds were worked into place, and whether we want to pass on them or make a play.

AFC West

The Chiefs are the rightful favorites in the AFC West, as the public concern about the loss of Tyreek Hill may have minimal legitimacy. But with so many dangerous teams in the division capable of winning it, the implied probability is probably fair. Meanwhile, a betting strategy of taking the Chargers' high-end results starts with this relatively juicy price for them to take the AFC West.

While the Broncos might have a tighter, more consistent window for their results this season, I make the Chargers slightly better than 33% to win the division with a higher ceiling, thanks to the attention they've put toward improving the defense.

Pick: Chargers (+240)

AFC South

In the lead-up to the season, it's been hard to find anyone who likes the Titans, and there seems to be a groundswell of belief in the Jaguars. There's enough of a possibility to me that Mike Vrabel's group pulls off better-than-expected results, as they have historically, to at least justify their odds. I expect it's more of the same for the Jaguars, but if those who think the turnaround starts now for Doug Pederson are right, then the Colts are vulnerable at the top. However, since their floor is still pretty high, I much prefer a bet on Indianapolis to make the playoffs at a slightly higher price than to make a play on anyone to win the division title just yet, in case things play out more like last year.

Pick: Pass

AFC North

The Browns, Bengals, and Ravens were each lined with an implied win probability of around 33% back before it became clear that Deshaun Watson would be suspended. There was ample time to grab the Ravens at +200, as the team that represented a buy-low opportunity after a season full of misfortune. Sure enough, they've gobbled up some of the Browns' IWP lost since Watson's suspension was announced, and the value is gone. We already have a bet on the Bengals to make the playoffs and would need more than 9-1 to back the Steelers.

Pick: Pass

AFC East

We discussed in their team preview that there's reason to believe the Bills might be overvalued this season. That can happen when the market thinks as highly of Buffalo as it does here, slowly increasing the amount needed to bet on the Bills in order to win back one unit. We can recall Week 16 of last season when the Patriots hosted Buffalo in a game that essentially decided the AFC East. The division was far more up in the air than the market is giving it credit for here.

Discounting the Jets, we'll look at the two options at +500, and with the Dolphins getting credit for a big splash, the respect in the marketplace for Miami is largely theoretical. Admittedly, backing the Patriots comes with the expectation that Bill Belichick will get more out of his team than meets the eye - a hypothetical itself - but at 5-1 odds, it's worth relying on that organization's track record.

Pick: Patriots (+500)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.