The West's second tier of title contenders has talent but serious questions
Dynasties often rule the NBA, but we're in an era of relative parity: We've seen four different champions and seven different finalists over the last four years. This coming season again features an uncommonly deep field of contenders. We're laying out reasons to believe in them and reasons to doubt them.
Parts 1 and 2 featured the East's two tiers of contender, while Part 3 dug into the top tier out West. Next up, the second tier of Western Conference contenders.
New Orleans Pelicans
Reasons to believe: The Pelicans should be the league's most improved team in 2022-23 after winning 36 games last season.
Following a disastrous 1-12 start, New Orleans was a winning team over its final 69 games. The Pels looked like a team on the fringes of contention after trading for CJ McCollum and fine-tuning their rotation. In 15 games with McCollum and the ever-improving Brandon Ingram both in the lineup, New Orleans went 9-6 with a net rating that would've ranked seventh overall.
With rookies Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Trey Murphy - plus late-season addition Larry Nance - factoring into a rotation that saw Garrett Temple excised from it, the Pelicans were a vastly improved defensive team down the stretch, boasting the ninth-best defensive rating over the final two months of the season after owning the ninth-worst D over the first 59 games. And with McCollum and Ingram sharing the court, the Pelicans scored at a rate (116.9 points per 100 possessions) that would've bested Utah's top-ranked offense.
Now that team's about to add Zion Williamson - an unstoppable force, and the rare breed of interior bully who brings back memories of prime Shaq.
Between Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas inside, and the combined shot-creation and playmaking of Ingram and McCollum, the Pelicans might own the NBA's best offense this season, despite often being one of the league's most 3-point averse teams (although more minutes for sophomore sharpshooter Murphy should help in that regard). Williamson will have to continue to improve defensively in order to avoid derailing New Orleans' newfound team defense, but the Pels have the goods to make their deepest playoff run in franchise history.
Williamson and the Pelicans should also finally be distraction-free after agreeing to a new five-year extension.
Reasons to doubt: Zion's health.
Williamson has played in only 85 of a possible 226 games through the first three years of his pro career, mostly due to foot and knee injuries, and he hasn't played a regular season game in 17 months. The makings of a contender are all in place, but assuming Zion can stay healthy for an entire season and playoff run may be wishful thinking. Without him, the Pelicans are much closer to the frisky play-in team they were last year than even a Tier 2 contender.
If Williamson can stay healthy, the biggest red flag on the court is New Orleans' shooting woes. Between their 3-pointers made and allowed, the Pelicans have posted some of the worst 3-point discrepancies in league history over the last couple seasons, which simply isn't a winning formula in the modern game.
The development of Murphy and a full season with McCollum in the fold will help, but the Pels have a mountain to climb. Nine of the last 10 NBA champions finished in the top seven in made threes. New Orleans finished 28th last season.
Memphis Grizzlies
Reasons to believe: The audacity of Ja Morant.
The combination of Morant, a solid defensive infrastructure, high-upside youngsters, and a sprinkle of veteran know-how has resulted in the Grizzlies amounting to something much greater than the sum of their parts in each of Ja's three seasons.
Once big man Jaren Jackson returns some time over the next couple of months, the core of a 56-win team will once again be intact, with Morant - an MVP-caliber young superstar - proving time and time again that doubting his Grizzlies is a fool's errand.
Reasons to doubt: Jackson underwent surgery to repair a stress fracture in his right foot in late June, so even if he returns within his original four-to-six-month timeline, it might be unreasonable to expect him back at full strength before the calendar flips to 2023. That alone could sink the Grizzlies, whose defense was as stingy as the second-ranked Warriors (107.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) when Jackson was on the court last season, and as pedestrian as the 15th-ranked Nuggets (112.4) when he sat, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Depending on how much offseason acquisition Danny Green has left in the tank, it doesn't appear the Grizzlies did much to replace the contributions of key reserves De'Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson, either.
Even with a currently sidelined Jackson and a depleted bench, it's not that the Grizzlies look bad; far from it. It's that on paper, they look like something far less than the 56-win juggernaut they appeared to be last season. At some point, Morant has to run out of rabbits he keeps pulling out of hats.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Reasons to believe: Between Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, the Wolves boast as offensively dynamic a one-two punch as any contender. D'Angelo Russell seems to have found his place as a tertiary offensive option and table-setter at point guard, while Jaylen Nowell appears due for a breakout season as part of a bench unit that now includes Kyle Anderson's steady play and Bryn Forbes' shooting. In addition, Jaden McDaniels has All-Defensive Team potential, and behind all those players now stands Rudy Gobert, a generational defensive talent too often left out to dry in Utah.
Aside from the stench of franchise history - the Timberwolves have won two playoff series through 33 seasons, and haven't advanced to the West semis since 2004 - there aren't many reasons to doubt this group. Minnesota appears to have the star talent and balance necessary to contend, especially if Edwards takes the kind of leap expected of him in year three.
Reasons to doubt: The defense in front of Gobert isn't exactly foolproof.
Edwards has promising defensive upside, but it's more potential than proven at this point, while Russell and Towns make for a defensively limited duo, to put it kindly. If the team's three offensive stars put forth a commendable effort on the less glamorous end of the court, Minnesota's defensive ceiling is now high enough to compete for a title with Gobert in the mix. But the floor is concerning.
If things go sideways defensively with the aforementioned trio of scorers, Gobert may find himself in unfortunately familiar territory: needing to put out more fires than any one rim-protector can, and trying to prop up a talented but ultimately flawed wannabe contender.
On the other end, though the Wolves would benefit from Edwards taking the reins as an offensive alpha, Towns' passive demeanor could still derail the team's lofty ambitions. For as unique an offensive talent and as devastatingly efficient as he is, Towns too often clams up when Minnesota needs him most.
If the new-look Wolves want to be something more than a playoff team happy to simply be there, Towns needs to be more aggressive when the stakes are highest.
Dallas Mavericks
Reasons to believe: Luka magic.
With Doncic leading the way, anything seems possible, particularly heading into a season that seems ripe for his MVP picking. Doncic can bend opposing defenses in such ways that his Mavs will always find a way on the offensive end, and Dallas boasted a top-seven defense in head coach Jason Kidd's first year at the helm. A superstar as capable as Doncic with an elite defense behind him is always a recipe for success, as evidenced by the Mavs' surprising run to last seasons's conference finals.
In addition, mercurial big man Christian Wood was the perfect offseason acquisition, particularly in a contract year, as he gives Doncic's Mavs the type of inside-out, pick-and-roll partner, and pick-and-pop threat they once hoped Kristaps Porzingis could be. The return of Tim Hardaway Jr. should also help juice the offense.
Reasons to doubt: Too much Luka.
Losing Jalen Brunson in free agency was a backbreaker. The Mavs already relied too heavily on Doncic, placing an unfathomable offensive burden on his young shoulders, and have now lost Doncic's most helpful teammate.
A full season with Spencer Dinwiddie and Hardaway in the fold will help, but it's unlikely either guard can replace Brunson's steady offensive production and playmaking. As for Wood, he's yet to prove his impressive production can translate to NBA wins, while his defense and attitude have left a lot to be desired throughout his career in Detroit and Houston.
If Doncic doesn't get enough help and the defense regresses, the Mavs can easily go from conference finalist to play-in loser.
Los Angeles Lakers
Reasons to believe: The Lakers almost belong in a separate tier unto themselves. The only reason they even made the cut as a fringe contender is out of respect for LeBron James and, to a lesser degree, Anthony Davis. If James and Davis stay healthy, and lingering trade talks with Indiana eventually deliver Myles Turner and Buddy Hield to L.A., the 17-time champions have to be given a chance to go the distance.
Reasons to doubt: I'll remind you, again, that the Lakers lost the 576 minutes James and Davis shared the court last season (by 30 points), and the team heads into a new campaign just as ill-fitting and poorly constructed. In their most recent preseason game, the Lakers lost to the Towns-less and Gobert-less Timberwolves despite James, Davis, Russell Westbrook, and Patrick Beverley all logging at least 24 minutes. Until a trade for Turner and Hield, or other reinforcements, actually comes to fruition, it should be obvious by now that the team around James and Davis is painfully devoid of depth, shooting, and secondary creation.
As for James and Davis themselves, while the team already looks suspect with them in the lineup, recent history suggests the Lakers will be forced to play without them too many times. James has missed an average of 22.4 games per 82 contests over his four seasons in L.A. after missing fewer than five games per season over the first 15 years of his career. Davis has missed an average of 30 games per 82 over his last four seasons, and hasn't cracked the 70-game mark in five years.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's senior content producer.