NFL Week 6 player props: Rising over a low bar in the passing game
Intentionally or not, we threw in a bonus prop last week and posted an 8-3 effort. At 28-22 (56%) on the season, we'll complete 10 valuable bets in the player prop market and look for easy-to-accomplish benchmarks for receiving targets.
Alvin Kamara over 31.5 receiving yards
After Kamara was a late scratch in London two weeks ago to void our bet on him, the Saints tailback was even more involved and explosive in the passing game than we thought he'd be against the Seahawks last week.
The Bengals' defense appears to have performed solidly against running backs this campaign. However, their numbers are minimized by matchups against the Ravens, Dolphins, and Steelers - teams that overlook backfield targets. Cincinnati gave up 55 yards on Tony Pollard's four receptions and 53 yards on six catches by Breece Hall. With a banged-up receiver room in New Orleans, Kamara should see at least a half-dozen targets from Andy Dalton.
Lamar Jackson under 59.5 rushing yards
I'm not smart enough to know how you keep Jackson from beating you with his legs. But I also didn't spend four years as the defensive coordinator of the Ravens and faced Jackson in practice. First-year Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale did, though.
New York had some practice against a quality runner at quarterback when it faced Justin Fields two weeks ago. While the Bears' signal-caller recorded 52 yards on seven carries, at least the Giants will have film showing what not to do.
Skylar Thompson anytime touchdown (+500)
Normally, we like to keep these bets closer to coin-flip results, but we'll make an exception for Thompson's quest to be the best supporting "Skylar" since "Good Will Hunting." He's starting over Teddy Bridgewater to allow Mike McDaniel to craft a game plan around his mobility. Whether he's capable of long, methodical treks or acts as a "mini-driver" thanks to a short field, Thompson will be more willing to attack the goal line than Tua Tagovailoa. This price should be closer to +250.
Christian Kirk over 4.5 receptions (-145)
We'll pay a little extra juice on Kirk's over because Doug Pederson told us to. Well, sort of. The Jaguars head coach and offensive play-caller said this week that Kirk should get "nine, 10, 11 targets possibly." Since he decides that distribution, we'll assume there are some cheap catches in the plan, making the over a valuable bet even at a marginally increased price.
David Njoku over 36.5 receiving yards
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said Njoku didn't get a ton of looks in Week 1 because there are certain team matchups where Njoku needs to be in protection. That sounds like a coach who forgot that a 6-foot-4, 250-pound tight end might be worth involving in the passing game. In the last three contests, Njoku has recorded 89, 73, and 88 yards, respectively, over a combined 23 targets. With Bill Belichick worried about stopping the run, Njoku should get plenty of looks instead of blocking all day.
Robert Tonyan over 21.5 receiving yards
Tonyan has gone over this number in four of five games this season. With Aaron Rodgers looking for a target to trust, "Big Bob" has caught 14 of the last 15 balls aimed his way. Tonyan was one of Rodgers' go-to guys before tearing his ACL less than a year ago, and he seems to be getting more comfortable by the week this season.
Drake London over 54.5 receiving yards
Kyle Pitts should return after a week away, and his absence was why we successfully faded Drake London against the Buccaneers' defense. The 49ers are missing half of their preseason starting defensive depth chart, including cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. The Falcons could find themselves in more of a shootout at home. With Pitts around to attract some attention, London will have extra room to work and the targets to go with it.
Rondale Moore over 45.5 receiving yards
The Seahawks can't stop anybody, and this is just Moore's third game of the season. He's gone from five targets to eight, and he'll get as many as Kyler Murray wants to throw him in Seattle. With limited other options for the Cardinals, expect a big day for the explosive Moore.
Christian McCaffrey over 38.5 receiving yards
PJ Walker completed 25 passes in his only start in 2021. Fourteen of those completions went to running backs, including 10 to Christian McCaffrey. With other Panthers targets unavailable or ill, Walker will rely on dump-offs to McCaffrey again.
Stefon Diggs under 87.5 receiving yards
The Bills tallied 442 yards in last year's AFC Divisional Round instant classic. Stefon Diggs had three catches for seven yards in the contest.
Buffalo blew out the Chiefs in Kansas City earlier in 2021, tallying 436 yards in the process. Diggs caught two passes that night.
In two meetings in 2020, Diggs had 77 and 46 yards, respectively, against the Chiefs.
The Bills could score a ton again, and they (impressively) can accomplish that without Diggs doing much other than attracting defensive attention.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.